Real Deal

Billups seems like he lost a step, and I can't say that losing Kleiza didn't hurt Denver's bench. Afflalo is no legitimate replacement, and Balkman can be a horrible player on the court. On the other hand, Lawson is a freak. Deron may be playing extra minutes in order to contain that Denver backcourt, unless Maynor proves he can hang in there with Lawson's slashing. Utah was a good team at full health. Denver was a 54-win team last season. At Denver, I expect the Nuggets to pull it out, but that's only if they contain Deron Williams. It's a huge assignment for Billups, but the downfall for the Jazz could also be letting Smith rack up his threes. Brewer is a decent defensive player, but he needs work on closing out shooters. If all of that fails for both teams, they have enough in their frontcourt to make a game interesting. Boozer and Melo can produce 25-30 points, and Okur is always a mismatch against Denver.

For some reason, the Hornets just don't look the same (based on the preseason, at least), and their play last season seemed to be lackluster at times. I'm wondering how big of an impact Emeka will have over Chandler, who was the perfect complimentary player to Chris Paul. The Spurs are at home, and they have everyone healthy. If they lose this game, it would be a cause of concern for me if I was Popovich, even though it's the first game of the year. The Hornets aren't exactly your clear-cut favorites in any individual player match-ups against the Spurs, not even the Parker/Paul match-up. However, there's nobody on the Hornets that can handle Manu off the bench, and I don't see Emeka or West giving Duncan any trouble, as he's well-rested and healthy for the first time in a while. Spurs should take this game by 8-9 points.

I just don't see how a Kings team with such little chemistry, experience and leadership (and coaching) can defeat an up-and-coming, overly-talented Thunder team with a legitimate MVP candidate in Kevin Durant (a candidate assuming they were to win 50 games, which is a stretch beyond belief, haha). Westbrook and Green can give the Thunder 20 points, and Harden could play very well off the bench, assuming he's going to take that role with Thabo starting. Evans and Martin can certainly cause the Thunder problems, but if they want to win this game, they will have to rely on the play of Thompson and Hawes, as the Thunder are still lacking defense in their frontcourt. At the end of the night, I expect OKC to pull out a win.

As much as I would like to see Rambis win games in Minnesota, it's going to be tough. The Wolves will have to go small all year long, and the truth is, that doesn't fit well with the triangle offense Rambis will try and bring to this franchise. If I were Kurt, I'd try something more simple, until they get Love back (who is an excellent passer and versatile player). Lee is going to be a pest out there on defense, and if Brook isn't getting his, Harris certainly will. The Nets have this game locked up if they limit the turnovers.

So...no Iverson? That sucks. With Conley hurt (what's his status?), I believe Mayo will be running the point. I just can't see Memphis pulling this off. Detroit has a lot of offensive firepower on the perimeter, with Gordon being among the best three-point shooters in the league, Hamilton's ability to hit from downtown, and Prince with the seasonal three as well. Problem is, the Pistons can get to the rim if their three isn't falling, and even though it does seem like they've tossed defense out the window, Prince is still in Detroit, and Kwame Brown isn't that bad of a defender. Memphis will have to chase Hamilton around all night long, and that's going to wear out whoever is assigned to him. Could be Mayo. If that's the case, this gets ugly.

Kobe (33), LeBron (38), and Dirk (34) have dropped 30-point games in their opening games. I wonder how big of a role Wade will have in this one, with Beasley having his hand in the cookie jar a little more, in addition to the rumor that Jermaine is much better than he was last season. New York should probably drop Lee down to the four and play Darko at the five...but I don't see that happening. Chandler may have a big game if Wade isn't bugging him, depends on what position he plays (if the above happens with Darko, he'll be at the two). The Heat should win their home opener.

This game is going to be packed with defense. Charlotte has been under the radar defensively, although they were in the top five or six last year, and we've seen the games Charlotte can grind out. In three games against the Celtics last year... 11/29/08: Boston 89, Charlotte 85 1/6/09: Charlotte 114, Boston 106 (OT) 4/1/09: Boston 111, Charlotte 109 (2OT) Charlotte is no joke. I have to take the Celtics in this game, though. They are at home, coming off a win against the best home team in the league last year (and they did it on the road), and it's their home opener. It could be a close game, though.

I imagine Cleveland will want to win this game by 50, so Toronto is going to have to come out firing from the perimeter (Hedo) and getting to the foul line (DeRozan and Bosh). Put Shaq in foul trouble, and double LeBron hard. That's really all you can expect the Raptors to do. Shaq isn't a guy you have to double as much anymore, but I'm not quite sure the Raptors should plan on covering him with just one man. They are thin up front, not much defensive talent. It would be different if they had someone like Perkins or Howard. I have Cleveland winning this by double-digits.

Orlando will more than likely dominate this game. There's nobody on the Sixers that can handle Nelson or Dwight, and Iggy will have to focus hard on defense against a rejuvenated and determined Vince Carter. It would be even uglier if Shard was playing. I'm interested to see Elton Brand, though. I just don't know how far the Sixers can push teams like this without Andre Miller's point guard play.

Yeah, with it being a home game for the Hawks (who are a better team), I can't see how they would lose. BUT, the Pacers are sneaky. You know what you'll get from Granger, maybe Ford, but guys like Murphy and Rush could come out and drop 20, especially against a Hawks team that isn't always willing to play hard-nosed defense. Hibbert has been playing like a man lately, also. I'll be pulling for Indiana only because of Rush and Granger, but again, I wouldn't be shocked at any result, unless it was a blowout.

Yeah, Hayes is a good defensive player. It's the reason why the Rockets decided to start him over Landry in the 07-08 season, and that's why he's getting the nod now.

Devastating loss. Our first game against them this season was too close to believe, had to have been a fluke. Since them, our defense has lost confidence, and JaMarcus Russell plays football like Bryon Russell, so I can't pick my guys to win. Sproles is liable to eat us alive.

I think I read $50k somewhere.

Wow, WTF?!?! :o http://www.nba.com/2009/news/features/10/27/lakers.rings http://www.nba.com/2009/news/features/09/26/nbarpa/lakerring2350.jpghttp://www.nba.com/2009/news/features/09/26/nbarpa/lakerring1350.jpg

He was limping around. I'm sure one of the guys said he was running on an injured foot. Baron is always hurt, though.

Yep, Bynum gave us 26/13.

Oden: 2 points (1-3 FG), 12 rebounds, 5 blocks, 7 turnovers He's the epitome of a defensive monster with no offense. Taller, poor man's Ben Wallace?

Yep. He pulled off some nice in-game dunks in college and in high school, and was even in a dunk contest or two.

You're digging to find a reason why the Lakers will lose more this season. Good shot efficiency helps in ALL games. We were 4-4 in games decided by two points or less. I'm not sure how that matters. When we win OR lose close games, you can point to something going wrong, a lot of times it'll be our defense or our shots not falling. Ron isn't going to handle or shoot the ball much with two minutes to go in the game. That will be Kobe, Gasol and Fisher. One thing you're forgetting, though: Trevor Ariza wasn't a spot-up shooter, either. His best shots fell off the dribble. Ask Knicks and Magic fans. Midway through the season, Ariza was drilling threes off of Kobe and Gasol passes, like it was nothing, and he became a threat from downtown near the end of the season and in the playoffs. Players change their game based on the teammates they are playing with. When you are teammates with a Kobe Bryant and a Pau Gasol (and Bynum, and Odom, and to some extent, Fisher), you will adjust accordingly without noticing it. Ariza did, and Artest will.

I know, and he does because he's used to that, since being in Sacramento and Houston. Before, he could land shots with Jermaine kicking it out to him. It'll come back. I don't have to worry about Ron's shooting.

How could it not be a fact that all players hit open shots better? If you can't hit open shots, you sure aren't going to hit contested shots, and truly contested shots are harder to hit than open threes most of the time. Ron will be fine. He can miss six shots out of the nine he takes, and it doesn't matter because we have Kobe, Gasol, Odom, and Bynum who can all come out and score 20-25+ points at any given time.

Have you ever seen Chase pre-Houston? He's always been an excellent dunker.

Bynum draws as much defensive attention as Gasol does, when Pau isn't playing. That was proven half of the season we had Bynum BEFORE we traded for Gasol...but Odom is a significant part of our offense without Gasol as well. Kobe is the most important player on this team, and then I would call on Gasol (because of his ability to play two positions), followed by Artest, then Odom, then Bynum. If it wasn't for Gasol's ability to play the five, Bynum would be notched over Odom on that list, possibly over Artest. Eventually, Ron's shooting averages will go up, but his shot attempts will decrease. With both Kobe and Gasol kicking it out to him, he'll get used to the open shots. It's a fact that ALL players hit open shots better than they do contested shots. It wouldn't make much basketball sense if they couldn't. Ron hasn't been in this position since his time with Jermaine O'Neal, but it won't be long.

Decent game, not really happy with some of our guys' defensive efforts. Bynum needs to be aware of where the ball is at, and Odom can't get abused like he did against Camby and Smith. When Fisher and Brown were defending Gordon, it was either foul or let him score, and that was even the case with Telfair, who was able to get into the lane a bit easier. Kobe played very good defense, and Ron was excellent in that regard. Offensively, Artest wasn't hitting his shots, but he was passing the ball well, and getting into position REALLY WELL. Kobe gave us 33, shot 42.3% from the field (which he can do better), and Bynum did very well on offense, not to mention Odom's production and his ability to find his teammates for assists. Our second unit was garbage, but I almost have to put the blame on Phil for that one, or maybe Gasol's injury, as Odom didn't play with them on the court, and all five players were part of our bottom six on the roster.

LOL. Figures.