Jump to content

Have the Heat finally meshed?


Guest STL10
 Share

  

14 members have voted

You do not have permission to vote in this poll, or see the poll results. Please sign in or register to vote in this poll.

Recommended Posts

Cuban will jock anyone not named Phil Jackson or Jerry Buss. He has stated, twice (over the last two seasons), that his Mavs would take out the Lakers in the playoffs.

 

You can take Cuban's word for it. I'm sure you weren't listening to him when he was contradicting your predictions that the Lakers were going to win it all, though.

 

But was he chuckling at the idea of the Heat being the best? That's what you said the Mavs and the other teams would be doing at the idea, and that is what I was responding to. Nothing else.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Owner

LMAO, if he stated the Heat were just a top eight team in the East, and there was no way they were going to get past Boston, Orlando or Chicago in the playoffs, you guys would call for his head.

 

But was he chuckling at the idea of the Heat being the best? That's what you said the Mavs and the other teams would be doing at the idea, and that is what I was responding to. Nothing else.

Cuban says a lot of things he doesn't believe, as long as it downgrades anyone out West. Do you think he's going to say the Spurs are the best team in the NBA? If it means calling another team that, he will. He stated he wants them to lose every game of the season. He hates the franchise. Saying the Heat are the best team in the league...

 

Wow...forget it. If you can't figure that one out...lol.

 

You guys can listen to Cuban all you want. Call him up and maybe he'll tell you to get your friends and family NBA Snuggies for Christmas, as long as they aren't the Spurs or Lakers Snuggies.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Owner

I don't listen to Cuban more than anyone else, but he's the Mavs owner and said he thinks the Heat are the best, therefore proving you wrong that none of the elite teams think the Heat are better than them.

LOL, so he speaks for all of the elite teams? :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Owner

Obviously not.

...okay.

 

Like I said, Cuban says a lot of things he doesn't mean, just to piss off the elite West teams. I'm pretty sure he thinks saying the Heat are the best team in the league would stir up emotions.

 

But, cool, Cuban thinks the Heat are the best (or, says he thinks). How many people thought the Cavaliers were the best over the last two seasons? :lol: I really doubt anyone cares what Cuban thinks, unless they are living in Miami or rooting for the Heat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I actually don't care about what Cuban said in that quote. It was just convenient that I found it on realgm when you replied to me, and that it was entirely related.

 

 

It doesn't prove anything for or against the Heat as far as their level of play. It just showed that an owner of a team you does, in fact, believe the Heat to be the best. At least until he says so otherwise.

 

 

 

If I needed to find ways to prove the Heat are playing the best basketball, maybe I can refer to their nine game winning streak with victory margins of 10 points or more, or the Heat being #1 in SRS (http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2011.html ).

 

Perhaps I can remind you that the Heat have possibly the best overall player in the league (though I believe CP3 is), the best second-best-player-on-the-team in the league, and the best third-best-player-on-the-team in league.

 

They also have some of the best shooters in Mike Miller, James Jones, and Eddie House, and they also have the best bench rebounder in Udonis Haslem. They also have complimentary role players in Arroyo, Chalmers, Big Z, and Dampier. They aren't great, but they are good enough to each provide a positive element.

 

The only areas the Heat are truly missing is a solid starting center, and youth to provide stability for the future. At least the two young players (Chalmers and Pittman) are playing the Heat's two weakest positions, and in a perfect world, will both develop into reliable starters.

 

The Heat have made up for a lack of a starting center by having an almost unnecessary amount of depth at center with Z, Dampier, Anthony, Magloire, and Pittman, and even Bosh, Haslem, and Howard can fill in minutes at the position. So that should help solve any possible match up issues there.

 

 

My only fear this season is the adjustment period the Heat would go through if Haslem were to come back during or just before the playoffs. The Heat's chances of winning would dip for a short period, especially with Bosh having to make a particularly large adjustment by having to play minutes at center.

 

 

But as of right now, the Heat are the best, even without Haslem and Miller. Not by far though. Not yet, anyway.

Edited by Poe
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Owner
They also have some of the best shooters in Mike Miller, James Jones, and Eddie House, and they also have the best bench rebounder in Udonis Haslem. They also have complimentary role players in Arroyo, Chalmers, Big Z, and Dampier. They aren't great, but they are good enough to each provide a positive element.

If you're going to go that route, you might as well consider Drew 100% healthy, Kobe and Gasol healed up from their current injuries, and admit that the Lakers are the best team in the NBA.

 

And don't ever give me an SRS stat, ever again. The Lakers were 5th in SRS last year. Boston was 10th. It's worthless.

 

If you're going to go THAT route, go check out Miami's RPI (9th).

 

http://espn.go.com/nba/stats/rpi

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I can provide whatever stat I want, thank you.

 

And I also mentioned how the Heat don't have Miller or Haslem.

 

 

 

The Lakers were 5th last year because of injuries, and the Celtics were lower because they were adjusting to a different gameplan.

 

Throughout history, the highest SRS team wins the championship about 60% of the time IIRC. So the stat doesn't appear to be worthless to me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Owner

I can provide whatever stat I want, thank you.

 

And I also mentioned how the Heat don't have Miller or Haslem.

 

 

 

The Lakers were 5th last year because of injuries, and the Celtics were lower because they were adjusting to a different gameplan.

 

Throughout history, the highest SRS team wins the championship about 60% of the time IIRC. So the stat doesn't appear to be worthless to me.

Haha, alright.

 

2010: Orlando Magic (nope)

2009: Cleveland Cavaliers (nope)

2008: Boston Celtics (yay)

2007: San Antonio Spurs (yay)

2006: San Antonio Spurs (nope)

2005: San Antonio Spurs (yay)

2004: San Antonio Spurs (nope)

2003: Dallas Mavericks (nope)

2002: Sacramento Kings (nope)

2001: San Antonio Spurs (nope)

2000: Los Angeles Lakers (yay)

 

36% of the time since 2000.

 

Two championships in six seasons wouldn't surprise me. Great accomplishment, nonetheless.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Two championships in six seasons wouldn't surprise me. Great accomplishment, nonetheless.

 

Here's a more complete list, with each listed team being the highest ranked in the SRS that year.

 

Year: Team --- SRS --- Playoff Success

 

49-50: Minneapolis Lakers --- 8.25 --- Champions

50-51: Minneapolis Lakers --- 4.79 --- Lost Division Finals

51-52: Minneapolis Lakers --- 5.28 --- Champions

52-53: Minneapolis Lakers --- 5.53 --- Champions

53-54: Syracuse Nationals --- 4.26 --- Lost NBA Finals

54-55: Fort Wayne Pistons --- 2.01 --- Lost NBA Finals

55-56: Philadelphia Warriors --- 3.82 --- Champions

56-57: Boston Celtics --- 4.79 --- Champions

57-58: Boston Celtics --- 5.03 --- Lost NBA Finals

58-59: Boston Celtics --- 5.84 --- Champions

59-60: Boston Celtics --- 7.62 --- Champions

60-61: Boston Celtics --- 4.93 --- Champions

61-62: Boston Celtics --- 8.25 --- Champions

62-63: Boston Celtics --- 6.38 --- Champions

63-64: Boston Celtics --- 6.93 --- Champions

64-65: Boston Celtics --- 7.47 --- Champions

65-66: Boston Celtics --- 4.34 --- Champions

66-67: Philadelphia 76ers --- 8.50 --- Champions

67-68: Philadelphia 76ers --- 7.96 --- Lost Division Finals

68-69: New York Knicks --- 5.48 --- Lost Division Finals

69-70: New York Knicks --- 8.42 --- Champions

70-71: Milwaukee Bucks --- 11.91 --- Champions

71-72: Los Angeles Lakers --- 11.65 --- Champions

72-73: Los Angeles Lakers --- 8.18 --- Lost NBA Finals

73-74: Milwaukee Bucks --- 7.61 --- Lost NBA Finals

74-75: Washington Bullets --- 6.54 --- Lost NBA Finals

75-76: Golden State Warriors --- 6.23 --- Lost Conference Finals

76-77: Portland Trail Blazers --- 5.39 --- Champions

77-78: Portland Trail Blazers --- 5.92 --- Lost Semifinals

78-79: San Antonio Spurs --- 4.97 --- Lost Conference Finals

79-80: Boston Celtics --- 7.37 --- Lost Conference Finals

80-81: Philadelphia 76ers --- 7.76 --- Lost Conference Finals

81-82: Boston Celtics --- 6.35 --- Lost Conference Finals

82-83: Philadelphia 76ers --- 7.53 --- Champions

83-84: Boston Celtics --- 6.42 --- Champions

84-85: Milwaukee Bucks --- 6.70 --- Lost Conference Finals

85-86: Boston Celtics --- 9.06 --- Champions

86-87: Los Angeles Lakers --- 8.32 --- Champions

87-88: Boston Celtics --- 6.15 --- Lost Conference Finals

88-89: Cleveland Cavaliers --- 7.95 --- Lost First Round

89-90: Phoenix Suns --- 7.09 --- Lost Conference Finals

90-91: Chicago Bulls --- 8.57 --- Champions

91-92: Chicago Bulls --- 10.07 --- Champions

92-93: Seattle Supersonics --- 6.66 --- Lost Conference Finals

93-94: Seattle Supersonics --- 8.68 --- Lost First Round

94-95: Seattle Supersonics --- 7.91 --- Lost First Round

95-96: Chicago Bulls --- 11.80 --- Champions

96-97: Chicago Bulls --- 10.70 --- Champions

97-98: Chicago Bulls --- 7.24 --- Champions

98-99: San Antonio Spurs --- 7.12 --- Champions

99-00: Los Angeles Lakers --- 8.41 --- Champions

00-01: San Antonio Spurs --- 7.92 --- Lost Conference Finals

01-02: Sacramento Kings ---7.61 --- Lost Conference Finals

02-03: Dallas Mavericks --- 7.91 --- Lost Conference Finals

03-04: San Antonio Spurs --- 7.51 --- Lost Conference Semifinals

04-05: San Antonio Spurs --- 7.85 --- Champions

05-06: San Antonio Spurs --- 6.69 ---Lost Conference Semifinals

06-07: San Antonio Spurs --- 8.35 --- Champions

07-08: Boston Celtics --- 9.31 --- Champions

08-09: Cleveland Cavaliers --- 8.68 --- Lost Conference Finals

09-10: Orlando Magic, 7.12 --- Lost Conference Finals

 

 

In 61 years...

 

• 32 teams (52%) with the highest rating in the SRS have won the championship.

• 40 teams (66%) that have won the championship had at least the 2nd highest rating.

• 46 teams (75%) that won had at least the 3rd highest rating.

• 54 teams (89%) that won had at least the 4th highest rating.

• 59 teams (97%) that won had at least the 6th highest rating.

 

 

Out of the teams with the highest rank in the SRS…

 

• 32 teams (52%) won the championship

• 6 teams (10%) made the NBA Finals and lost.

• 17 teams (28%) made the Conference Finals and lost

• 2 teams (3%) lost in the second round.

• 4 teams (7%) lost in the first round.

 

 

And examining the tendency for a #1 team to win a championship with a higher rating in the SRS...

 

• 31/59 teams (53%) with the #1 rating that year being 6.00 or higher won the championship.

• 21/36 teams (58%) with the #1 rating of 7.00 or higher rating won.

• 15/18 teams (83%) with the #1 rating of 8.00 or higher won.

• 7/7 teams (100%) with the #1 rating of 9.00 or higher won.

 

 

 

 

 

So what do we get out of this?

 

• It is pretty much guaranteed that a top 6 rated team in the SRS will win the championship.

• Three out of four championship teams have the third highest rating.

• Two out of three championship teams have the 2nd highest.

• And half the championship teams have the highest.

 

• The highest ranked team in the SRS has an 80% chance of at least making the conference finals.

• For some reason, the highest ranked team has a much higher tendency to lose in the conference finals than the NBA finals.

 

• The higher the #1 overall team's rating in the SRS, the more likely they are to win the championship.

• Every team in NBA history with both the highest rating in the league and at least a 9.00 SRS have won the championship.

 

 

 

 

Of course, you can't count on the SRS to be 100% accurate, which is why only half of the top rated teams in history win the championship. SRS does not take into account injuries, midseason trades, or unfavorable playoff matchups, though neither does the regular season record.

 

What I can tell for the SRS is that it appears to be a more accurate representation of how well a team performed during the regular season than the record itself.

 

 

 

 

 

(Btw, that research took a pretty long time. There are no actual lists I know of, so I had to look up each individual year and write it down.)

Edited by Poe
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Owner

For one, you get 14 alone out of the Boston dynasty (when there were about 10 teams in the NBA) and the Bulls dynasty (that's the greatest team of all-time). I wouldn't even count any of them before 1970 just because of the way the league was.

 

Secondly, your argument is still flawed because the Heat have yet to play 82 games, and all of those SRS statistics are based on an 82-game season (with the exception of the lockout Spurs team, which you shouldn't have counted in your analysis).

 

The SRS is based HEAVILY on the teams that you play. There's no point in using the system when you're 20-30 games into the season. The Heat have yet to play the Lakers twice, the Spurs twice, the Mavericks a second time, the Celtics two more times, the Magic two more times...and, well, you get the picture.

 

Recently, in the last decade, the numbers show a decline. Recently, in the last decade, the league hasn't really changed as far as the number of teams and players go, and it's a similar league overall.

 

Nice job getting the stats together, but I still don't see the significance, especially when it's this early in the season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice job getting the stats together, but I still don't see the significance, especially when it's this early in the season.

 

The Heat's SRS has stayed relatively the same whether they played good teams or bad teams. It only changed when Haslem got injured and it took a dip, but it's rising back up.

 

It hasn't really made a difference at what point in the season it is, unless a team happens to be hot early like the Hornets, which still means they were playing the best basketball in the league at that very point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...