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What will James Harden average?


ChosenOne
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2011-12 Stats

31.4 Minutes Per Game

49.1 Field Goal %

39.0 Three Point %

84.6 Free Throw %

4.1 Rebounds Per Game

3.7 Assists Per Game

1.0 Turnover Per Game

2.2 Turnovers Per Game

16.8 Points Per Game

 

Things to consider (pros and cons)

 

- Will be starting and a leader for Houston, the pressure can be either positive and negative.

- Will probably average around 36+ minutes a game for Houston, giving him alot more opportunities to do everything.

- Will be asked to be much more aggressive on the offensive end, average 17ppg off 10 shots in OKC. Better believe he will put up 15+ shots a game for Houston.

- Will have the ball in his hands alot more, but new and not as good supporting cast will test his play making abilities.

- Is not longer playing two allstars, one being a superstar. Defenses will plan for him more and will face better defenders.

- His starting point guard is Jermey Lin.

 

What will his number look like for Houston?

Will he be an allstar?

Where does he rank among SG's in the league today?

Edited by ChosenOne
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I think he'll average around 20-22 ppg and 6 assists for Houston his first year. He's got that point guard ability, so I see him getting a decent amount of assists because he'll have more chances to create with this team. You're right about teams defending him more since he's not on OKC so he may average 18-19.

 

I think he'll be an all-star, but I'm not so sure he will be this year because of the team he's on.

 

I think he's a top 5 shooting guard, maybe 3rd or 4th best. He's better than Joe Johnson but not as good as Kobe or Wade. There really aren't many true shooting guards in the NBA anymore, so he should be a top one for awhile.

 

I really like Harden and Lin as a backcourt. I think they really balance out well. They can both attack and Harden can shoot the three. The best part is that they can play off each other. Harden was the best point guard on OKC, as Westbrook essentially played shooting guard (all he did was shoot).

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What will his number look like for Houston? I went to basketball reference and they have his projected stats for this season to be 18.2 PPG, 3.7 APG, 4.7 RPG, 1.3 STLS, 48% FG, 38 3PT, 85% FT. Thats pretty good though IDK if these stats were projected after or before the trade. Personally I agree with everyone else who sees him averaging around 20/5/5 with him being the clear cut number 1 scoring option with the Rockets. I'm pretty sure he could get 20 with no problem unless someone steps up or Linsanity starts running wild.

 

Will he be an allstar? He has a good chance other than Kobe it's really a bit of a toss up between who would be his backup in the All Star game but I can't really say right now.

 

Where does he rank among SG's in the league today? I'll say top 5 out of the top 10 SG

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Arbitrarily I would picture his numbers being something like 22 a night on 44% from the field and like 36% from 3. I see him at around 5 boards and 5 assists with some extra turnovers. Overall I think it is fair to expect more volume less efficiency from him. He is going to go from being the 3rd best player on a team to being the best player by far on the Rockets. Jeremy Lin might be able to be a solid player, but even at his best he isn't a guy I would say is going to make Harden's life easier offensively (or demand the attention that Westbrook or Durant would). Asik is going to set good hard screens, and while that may free up Harden, is Asik really going to be a guy that Harden can hit on a hard roll for a bucket? Is Donatas going to be that player? Seems like a spot up shooter to me, but Rockets fans would know better than I would.

 

I don't think what Harden does this year is important. He is going to develop his game more this year than he has the past 3 years. Him being the number 1 option (something I believe he is capable of by the way, at least in the same way JJ used to be, not a title number 1 but still competent) is going to make him a better player. He is going to get game planned for now, which may not have been the case the past few years.

 

I know people may use the argument "well look what he did with KD and RW on the bench", but without looking at the numbers, probably 70% of the time he was playing with and against backups.

 

I am a huge fan of Harden, I think Houston fleeced OKC. I hope he comes in and gives you guys 24-6-6 right off the bat, but I just think everyone should temper their expectations. There is probably going to be a bit of a rough patch at first, as well as throughout the year. Harden is a good player, but as long as Jeremy Lin is the Rockets second best player, they aren't going anywhere, and Harden's life will not be easy.

Edited by Check my Stats
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Arbitrarily I would picture his numbers being something like 22 a night on 44% from the field and like 36% from 3. I see him at around 5 boards and 5 assists with some extra turnovers. Overall I think it is fair to expect more volume less efficiency from him. He is going to go from being the 3rd best player on a team to being the best player by far on the Rockets. Jeremy Lin might be able to be a solid player, but even at his best he isn't a guy I would say is going to make Harden's life easier offensively (or demand the attention that Westbrook or Durant would). Asik is going to set good hard screens, and while that may free up Harden, is Asik really going to be a guy that Harden can hit on a hard roll for a bucket? Is Donatas going to be that player? Seems like a spot up shooter to me, but Rockets fans would know better than I would.

 

I don't think what Harden does this year is important. He is going to develop his game more this year than he has the past 3 years. Him being the number 1 option (something I believe he is capable of by the way, at least in the same way JJ used to be, not a title number 1 but still competent) is going to make him a better player. He is going to get game planned for now, which may not have been the case the past few years.

 

I know people may use the argument "well look what he did with KD and RW on the bench", but without looking at the numbers, probably 70% of the time he was playing with and against backups.

 

I am a huge fan of Harden, I think Houston fleeced OKC. I hope he comes in and gives you guys 24-6-6 right off the bat, but I just think everyone should temper their expectations. There is probably going to be a bit of a rough patch at first, as well as throughout the year. Harden is a good player, but as long as Jeremy Lin is the Rockets second best player, they aren't going anywhere, and Harden's life will not be easy.

 

You forgot to mention Parsons who is coming off a spectacular rookie season, and averaged 15 ppg in the last 2-3 months of the season last year. The Rockets have the weapons in the starting lineup, about 3 guys who can create shots for themselves, and for others (Lin, Harden, Parsons), Patterson has seemed to improve a lot from last season, and Asik can definitely hold the center position down. Nobody should be saying that Harden will struggle as the main man because he isn't by himself, he definitely has players around him that can play.

 

Either way lets say Harden and the Rockets do struggle this season, we still have enough money to sign another max player and while at the same time getting a lottery pick.

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I'll say around 20PPG, 4APG, and 4RPG.

 

There's gonna be a huge adjustment period, defenses will gameplan for him, double him, and they won't help off him like they did at times in OKC.

 

I don't expect his assists to really go up, one thing that worked for him so well in OKC was playing the pick and roll/pop game on one end, and having Durant or Westbrook on the weakside for kick outs. Lin is a streaky outside shooter, and is still recovering from his knee injury.

 

But he was so efficient last year scoring the ball, getting to the rim and finishing, it's hard not to see him being a 20PPG scorer as the main option.

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But he was so efficient last year scoring the ball, getting to the rim and finishing, it's hard not to see him being a 20PPG scorer as the main option.

 

Moreso than the finishing, it's his ability to draw fouls and shoot well from the FT line that makes him extremely efficient. His FG% will take a dip this year, but overall he should still be an efficient scorer.

 

I agree with everything else you said, though, 20/4/4 sounds about right.

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