Built Ford Tough Posted August 20, 2010 Report Share Posted August 20, 2010 Found this on RealGM. Year DRTG ON DRTG OFF 2006-2007 107.8 105.9 2007-2008 108.7 107.0 2008-2009 113.1 106.2 2009-2010 116.9 108.3 Over the 4 years since he entered the league, Bargnani's impact on Raptors DRTG: DRTG on: 110.54DRTG off: 104.28 Raptors are 6 points better with him off the floor. His impact on the Raptors ORTG: ORTG on: 108.56ORTG off: 106.23 Raptors are 2 points worse with him off the floor. That evens out to Bargnani costing the Raptors 4 points over 100 possessions. Over 82 games, with Bargnani, the team is a 35.8-win team. Without Bargnani, the team is a 46.3 win team. That was all posted on the Raptors RealGM board and I figured it would be worth bringing over here for discussion. Thoughts on this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flash Posted August 20, 2010 Report Share Posted August 20, 2010 Shoulda taken this guy: http://media.commercialappeal.com/media/img/photos/2009/08/30/31c1a_t300.jpeg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nitro Posted August 21, 2010 Report Share Posted August 21, 2010 It's hard to say. He's been playing out of position with another relatively soft big man (Bosh) his entire career. I don't think Bargnani will ever be a championship level 1st or 2nd option, but he can be effective if placed with the right supporting cast. Whether that be in a role as a starter alongside a defensive-minded Center, or as an offensive spark off the bench, I don't think he's one of those players that's so soft and defenseless that he can't make a positive impact on a championship caliber team. With that said, as a 1st option on the Raptors, it's a very bleak situation. Unfortunately he's their only proven commodity that can put the ball in the basket in volume, so whether or not some advanced stats say otherwise, he needs to start and get a bunch of minutes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Built Ford Tough Posted August 21, 2010 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2010 It's hard to say. He's been playing out of position Funnily enough, Bargnani has arguably been more effective as a center than as a power forward for his career. Take his numbers from last season for example. (Per 82games.com) At Power Forward Bargnani's numbers: 22 ppg/8.5 rpg/1.7 bpg/52.3 eFG%/16 PERBargnani's counterparts numbers: 24.3 ppg/9.9 rpg/1.1 bpg/54.7 eFG%/19.8 PER At Center Bargnani's number: 26.9 ppg/8.4 rpg/2.3 bpg/52.1 eFG%/20 PERBargnani's counterparts numbers: 19.1 ppg/13.8 rpg/1.5 bpg/52.9 eFG%/18.2 PER Net Production At Power Forward: -2.3 ppg/-1.4 rpg/+0.6 bpg/-0.023 eFG%/-3.4 PERAt Center: +7.8 ppg/-5.4 rpg/+0.8 bpg/-0.008 eFG%/+1.8 PER 82games has Bargnani playing more minutes as a power forward than as a center last season, just in case you were wondering. I've said for a while that Bargnani is better suited to playing the 4, but lately I have been wondering if that actually was the case. He has legit center size at 7 feet and 250 pounds (NBA.com, ESPN and Wiki all have him listed at that) and part of what makes him effective on offense is his clear quickness advantage over most centers in the league. If you move him to the power forward spot, that quickness advantage he would normally have at the 5 would most likely be turned around on him and he would be the one who is at the disadvantage instead of his counterpart. He looks pretty fluid and athletic when driving the ball against opposing centers like a Brendan Haywood, Shaquille O'Neal or a Kendrick Perkins, but if you suddenly have the Kevin Garnett's, Chris Bosh's or some of the other quicker 4's in the league guarding him, he is going to have troubles putting the ball on the floor. His size advantage over most 4's would be negated due to the fact that he doesn't really do a good job of exploiting a size advantage in the first place. Defensively it would basically be a pick your poison type of thing and wouldn't really matter. He will either struggle with opposing centers strength advantage, or will struggle with opposing power forwards quickness advantage over him. I'd almost say that he is better off at center simply because he seems to be more effective at guarding the post than guarding players who try to face him up, but I think it is basically a moot point as he would be at a clear disadvantage either way. I do still think that your best bet is to put him beside a defensive 5, but I have definitely wondered whether or not he really is better suited to playing the 4 than the 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nitro Posted August 21, 2010 Report Share Posted August 21, 2010 Funnily enough, Bargnani has arguably been more effective as a center than as a power forward for his career. Take his numbers from last season for example. (Per 82games.com) At Power Forward Bargnani's numbers: 22 ppg/8.5 rpg/1.7 bpg/52.3 eFG%/16 PERBargnani's counterparts numbers: 24.3 ppg/9.9 rpg/1.1 bpg/54.7 eFG%/19.8 PER At Center Bargnani's number: 26.9 ppg/8.4 rpg/2.3 bpg/52.1 eFG%/20 PERBargnani's counterparts numbers: 19.1 ppg/13.8 rpg/1.5 bpg/52.9 eFG%/18.2 PER Net Production At Power Forward: -2.3 ppg/-1.4 rpg/+0.6 bpg/-0.023 eFG%/-3.4 PERAt Center: +7.8 ppg/-5.4 rpg/+0.8 bpg/-0.008 eFG%/+1.8 PER 82games has Bargnani playing more minutes as a power forward than as a center last season, just in case you were wondering. I kind of think this is a fool's gold type stat. Last season David Lee actually gave up more points per 48min on a higher FG % to PF's than C's, but I think it should be glaringly obvious he's a true PF on both ends of the floor. The Bargnani situation is a bit different because he does have the size of a Center, and can effectively defend most Centers who will try to post him up (I saw a list a few weeks ago that had the top 30 Centers in the league last season defending the post and Bargnani was somewhere in the middle). However, because Bargnani played more than half his time at PF as opposed to C, and almost NEVER played with Bosh when he got his minutes at C (check the 82games.com stats for top 5-man squads on the Raptors last season), it's really hard to safely gauge his effectiveness at the position. In fact, the one 5-man group that Bargnani played at C with Bosh at PF the team's defense was about as underwhelming as vice-versa. I've said for a while that Bargnani is better suited to playing the 4, but lately I have been wondering if that actually was the case. He has legit center size at 7 feet and 250 pounds (NBA.com, ESPN and Wiki all have him listed at that) and part of what makes him effective on offense is his clear quickness advantage over most centers in the league. If you move him to the power forward spot, that quickness advantage he would normally have at the 5 would most likely be turned around on him and he would be the one who is at the disadvantage instead of his counterpart. He looks pretty fluid and athletic when driving the ball against opposing centers like a Brendan Haywood, Shaquille O'Neal or a Kendrick Perkins, but if you suddenly have the Kevin Garnett's, Chris Bosh's or some of the other quicker 4's in the league guarding him, he is going to have troubles putting the ball on the floor. His size advantage over most 4's would be negated due to the fact that he doesn't really do a good job of exploiting a size advantage in the first place. Defensively it would basically be a pick your poison type of thing and wouldn't really matter. He will either struggle with opposing centers strength advantage, or will struggle with opposing power forwards quickness advantage over him. I'd almost say that he is better off at center simply because he seems to be more effective at guarding the post than guarding players who try to face him up, but I think it is basically a moot point as he would be at a clear disadvantage either way. This is why I said he could either be a really good bench player or NEEDS a good defensive Center by his side. Let me explain.... 1) The one thing I think you are really missing is help defense. The problem defensively with putting Bargnani at Center is not so much the fear of having opposing Centers abuse him (afterall, how many opposing Centers are a real offensive risk nowadays?). It's how he's going to affect other players when they take it in the lane. Bargnani is far from a shotblocking presence and he doesn't make the kind of defensive rotations to consistently cutoff driving lanes at the point of attack. This is a problem unless you got an elite defensive PF to clean up some of his mistakes. If Bargnani comes off the bench this becomes much less of an issue, and offensively it could play to his advantage (as I'll allude to in #2). But as a starter? If you want to have a good defense, I wouldn't gamble on playing Bargnani at Center. 2) You are right, offensively he'll be more effective at Center than PF. However, the defensive risk is too great. If he comes off the bench, he can really stretch the defense out and be a mismatch playing in the middle...enough to where his defense will be good enough to make things worth it. But if he's starting, that's not the kind of defensive identity that will win much in the post-season. Overall, the ideal situation is to get an elite defensive PF to play by him, but those guys just don't come along very often. The more realistic approach is to get a good, shotblocking defensive C. Or on a contending team, have him come off the bench at C and force teams to adjust to the mismatch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owner Real Deal Posted August 21, 2010 Owner Report Share Posted August 21, 2010 I think he'll be fine. If Toronto surrounds him with defensive talent up front (looks like they are trying to do that), it's less work on his part. Offensive-minded players contribute so much more, in a positive manner, when they have less responsibility on the defensive end. Alex brings up a good point about the center position. How many centers are a threat in the league today? Bargs does have that advantage back on offense (as you pointed out) because he's quicker than most centers. Basically, he's a poor man's Dirk playing the five, dragging guys out to the perimeter and taking them off the dribble, or watching them sit between him and the rim and allowing him to take open jumpers. I shouldn't really compare him to Dirk, though...you really have another Mehmet Okur on your hands, just not as strong in the post. Hard to really find someone to link him to in that manner, and I'm not sure if his contributions will double because of Bosh's departure, or hit rock-bottom because of the increased attention, but the more Toronto builds a team around him, the less responsibilities he has (defense, ball-handling, etc) and the easier things will be. Usually, that translates into victories. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Check my Stats Posted August 22, 2010 Report Share Posted August 22, 2010 I see Bargnani as a player between a role player and core player. While he brings a lot of good things to the table, spread the floor, solid passer for a 7 footer, and score in the post on smaller players, block the occasional shot, he also brings a lot of bad things to the table like his sometimes non-existent help defense, and his well publicized putrid rebounding. He honestly reminds me quite a bit of a player like Al Horford in terms of his tertiary type of role on a team, not their skillsets obviously, though Horford is probably a better overall player at this point. I think Bargnani is definitely better than Okur, at least the Okur I have watched I didn't see him early in his career. I see Okur as a spot up shooter offensively but Bargnani is deceptively quick and can blow past his defender occasionally, he is actually surprisingly explosive on the perimeter at times. Bargnani needs to take that next step as a player, he has the skills to become better on the defensive end, hopefully with Bosh gone he becomes more assertive because that has always been his biggest weakness as far as I am concerned, his assertiveness. I think he can be a contributor on a winning team, but I don't think he can be a featured offensive player (first or second option at least). He has always been at his best playing off others, he just needs to continue to refine his skills on the defensive end, especially on the glass. He might be an occasional all-star because of the lack of C's, but the key to our future lies in Demar and hopefully a top 5 pick this year, as well as Ed Davis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owner Real Deal Posted August 22, 2010 Owner Report Share Posted August 22, 2010 Most definitely, he's better than Okur. It's just difficult to find a good comparison because, for me, he's sitting in the middle, between Dirk and Okur. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Built Ford Tough Posted August 24, 2010 Author Report Share Posted August 24, 2010 I kind of think this is a fool's gold type stat. Last season David Lee actually gave up more points per 48min on a higher FG % to PF's than C's, but I think it should be glaringly obvious he's a true PF on both ends of the floor. The Bargnani situation is a bit different because he does have the size of a Center, and can effectively defend most Centers who will try to post him up (I saw a list a few weeks ago that had the top 30 Centers in the league last season defending the post and Bargnani was somewhere in the middle). However, because Bargnani played more than half his time at PF as opposed to C, and almost NEVER played with Bosh when he got his minutes at C (check the 82games.com stats for top 5-man squads on the Raptors last season), it's really hard to safely gauge his effectiveness at the position. In fact, the one 5-man group that Bargnani played at C with Bosh at PF the team's defense was about as underwhelming as vice-versa. I don't know what to think of them. On one hand, it confirms my belief that he is better suited offensively to play the 5 as he would be able to exploit his quickness advantage over most 5's and burn them on the perimeter with his jumper. It also supports what I was saying about his defense being a concern when playing the 4 because, like you said, he is actually decent at defending the post against most centers in the league (although any decently skilled center abuses him, but there aren't many skilled offensive centers anymore). On the other hand, it is hard to come up with any sort of accurate idea of just how effective he was at the power forward spot because of the reason you listed and for the simple fact that stats don't always tell the whole story. To be perfectly honest, I never really paid all that much attention to how effective Bargnani was when playing power forward last season because it never really crossed my mind to actually focus in on how he was playing while at the 4. It also doesn't really surprise me that the numbers of Bargnani and Bosh together were fairly underwhelming because usually when Bosh wasn't on the floor, it was Amir Johnson playing the 4 beside Bargnani at the 5. Johnson was far and away the best interior defender for the Raptors last season and the team in general played much better defense when he was on the floor in comparision to when he was off the floor. It isn't a coincidence that basically all of the top lineups defensively for the Raptors composed of Amir Johnson paired with Bosh or Bargs. 2) You are right, offensively he'll be more effective at Center than PF. However, the defensive risk is too great. If he comes off the bench, he can really stretch the defense out and be a mismatch playing in the middle...enough to where his defense will be good enough to make things worth it. But if he's starting, that's not the kind of defensive identity that will win much in the post-season. I wasn't missing it at all, I was just under the impression that his help defense was so god awful that it went without saying. It is pretty much a well known fact that Bargnani is absolutely useless when it comes to help defense so I figured that I would save myself the time of even mentioning it. I have also mentioned before that I don't think Bargnani will ever be a starter on a contending team unless he is paired beside an elite defensive power forward (like Duncan when he was playing beside Robinson) or a Dwight Howard type of center. Other than that, he should really be coming off of the bench and being an offensive spark plug. 2) You are right, offensively he'll be more effective at Center than PF. However, the defensive risk is too great. If he comes off the bench, he can really stretch the defense out and be a mismatch playing in the middle...enough to where his defense will be good enough to make things worth it. But if he's starting, that's not the kind of defensive identity that will win much in the post-season. I don't think I can agree with you on this, at least not 100%. The way I see it, Bargnani is going to be a complete non-factor defensively no matter where he is being played (unless he is able to guard opposing centers and have an elite defensive power forward covering his [expletive]), so you might as well try and maximize his effectiveness on the offensive end of the floor. With how little he gives you on the defensive side of the ball, if you aren't getting everything possible out of him offensively, there is little point to even have him on the floor as far as I am concerned. To maximize his effectiveness offensively, I think you have to trot him out at the center spot where he can exploit the mismatches he creates. Unless he is playing alongside a prime Tim Duncan, Dwight Howard or a Greg Oden, I don't think Bargnani as a starter will result in wins at all. He just doesn't have a well enough rounded skill set that he can ever really be a starter playing 30+ minutes on a contending team. Overall, the ideal situation is to get an elite defensive PF to play by him, but those guys just don't come along very often. The more realistic approach is to get a good, shotblocking defensive C. Or on a contending team, have him come off the bench at C and force teams to adjust to the mismatch. Even if you get a good, shotblocking defensive center, he has to be better than just good, he has to be elite because Bargnani is ill equipped to guard power forwards. He can't just be "good", he has to be among the best in the league, at least if the Raptors ever want to actually make noise in the playoffs with Bargnani in the starting lineup playing major minutes. The ideal situation is to get a legit starting center and move Bargnani to a 6th man role, at least as far as I am concerned. That or trade for Dwight Howard or Greg Oden (or sign him this summer if you can offer enough money to get him away from Portland) and hope to god he stays healthy. but the more Toronto builds a team around him, the less responsibilities he has (defense, ball-handling, etc) and the easier things will be. These words scare me. There is no reason at all for Toronto to build a team around Bargnani. The Raptors should not be building their post-Bosh team with the intention of getting players that compliment Bargnani. They should look to get their legit franchise player through the draft over the next few seasons and then hope that Bargnani compliments him. If not, hope that you can flip him into somebody that does. Sadly, I don't see that happening and it will not surprise me at all to see Colangelo making moves to try and build a team around Bargnani. Most definitely, he's better than Okur. It's just difficult to find a good comparison because, for me, he's sitting in the middle, between Dirk and Okur. He is better than the broken down current version of Okur that we saw last year, that is for sure, but the 26-27 year old Okur is basically best case scenario for Bargnani probably. Okur was an effective offensive player and a solid post defender although like Bargnani, a weak help defender, just not to the same degree. The Okur who was putting up 18/8 a few years ago is about as much as you can realistically hope for from Bargnani. Maybe a few extra points as he is a bit more talented offensively with a bit weaker post defense. There isn't really anything wrong with that as Okur was a nice player, but again, it goes back to what we were talking about before in regards to whether or not he is just a role player or actually a core player. That is the million dollar question. Well, actually, it is more like the $50M question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owner Real Deal Posted August 24, 2010 Owner Report Share Posted August 24, 2010 These words scare me.Well, what I was referring to was over the next couple of seasons, really. I don't see who else they would build around. Maybe in 3-4 years, that will change...but hey, you guys could always bring back Carter before he retires. Bargnani and Carter = Shaq and Kobe? http://www.mentaljokes.com/images/a_cootiegrn.gifhttp://www.mentaljokes.com/images/a_cootiegrn.gifhttp://www.mentaljokes.com/images/a_cootiegrn.gifhttp://www.mentaljokes.com/images/a_cootiegrn.gifhttp://www.mentaljokes.com/images/a_cootiegrn.gifhttp://www.mentaljokes.com/images/a_cootiegrn.gifhttp://www.mentaljokes.com/images/a_cootiegrn.gifhttp://www.mentaljokes.com/images/a_cootiegrn.gifhttp://www.mentaljokes.com/images/a_cootiegrn.gifhttp://www.mentaljokes.com/images/a_cootiegrn.gifhttp://www.mentaljokes.com/images/a_cootiegrn.gifhttp://www.mentaljokes.com/images/a_cootiegrn.gifhttp://www.mentaljokes.com/images/a_cootiegrn.gifhttp://www.mentaljokes.com/images/a_cootiegrn.gifhttp://www.mentaljokes.com/images/a_cootiegrn.gifhttp://www.mentaljokes.com/images/a_cootiegrn.gifhttp://www.mentaljokes.com/images/a_cootiegrn.gifhttp://www.mentaljokes.com/images/a_cootiegrn.gifhttp://www.mentaljokes.com/images/a_cootiegrn.gifhttp://www.mentaljokes.com/images/a_cootiegrn.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owner Real Deal Posted September 1, 2010 Owner Report Share Posted September 1, 2010 Sean, I know you saw this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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