Erick Blasco Posted December 25, 2010 Report Share Posted December 25, 2010 Today is Festivus, so it’s only appropriate that I air an NBA grievance. Brandon Roy’s knee troubles have brought up something that drives me batty: The overly conservative nature of general managers when it comes to dealing with the health of potential draft picks. In an Art Garcia piece on NBA.com, former Timberwolves decision-maker Kevin McHale explained that Roy’s knees–which had already been operated on twice, once for each knee, by the time he entered the draft–were a factor in Minnesota choosing to deal Roy’s rights for those to Randy Foye. “I remember very vividly sitting in a room with a bunch of doctors and they were saying, ‘Well, I don’t know, he could have problems in a couple of years. It could be five, it could be 10, it could be never, but the range that he has, he’s going to have problems with his knee,’” said McHale, now an NBA TV analyst. “This was before he played one NBA game.” Of the 14 lottery picks, how many of them are likely to match Roy’s current WARP total? LaMarcus Aldridge is likely to get there, and Rudy Gay, who is still young and already has put up 3.0 WARP this year, has a pretty good shot. Tyrus Thomas might do so if he figures things out. And that’s it. So even if we conservatively assume that Roy is entirely finished as an NBA player of value, he is still likely to be at worst the fourth-best player in the lottery. Suffice it to say that Foye, who can’t even get off the bench for one of the league’s worst teams, is not going to make it. http://www.basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=606 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Check my Stats Posted December 25, 2010 Report Share Posted December 25, 2010 What is WARP total? Surely Bargnani will get there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N.1.A.K. Posted December 25, 2010 Report Share Posted December 25, 2010 WinsAboveReplacementPlayer I believe a Replacement player is a player with 0 value. he would be = in WARP... neither negative nor positive... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erick Blasco Posted December 25, 2010 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2010 WinsAboveReplacementPlayer I believe a Replacement player is a player with 0 value. he would be = in WARP... neither negative nor positive... Yep. Replacement Level is essentially the level of a basic NBA player. He has, as N1AK pointed out, a baseline of 0. WARP determines how many wins a player provides his team more than the average schlum would. Last year, BP's metrics determined that Bargnani provided two more wins for the Raptors for the season than the average player would have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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