Basketball Prospectus Selects Their All-Stars

[Erick Blasco]

 

 

We will get to my selections for the All-Star reserves in both conferences in the moment, but first let's begin with what I consider the most interesting question that will be answered when the coaches' picks are revealed on Thursday: Is Kevin Love an All-Star?

 

Almost every year there is a player or two who puts up good numbers on a losing team, which serves to divide people picking their All-Star teams. Love takes this to an extreme heretofore unknown. Pick your metric and Love looks like a superstar. He's fourth in the league in WARP, sixth in EWA (the value portion of PER), fifth in Win Shares and tops in the NBA in Wins Produced. Yet because of his poor defensive reputation and the Minnesota Timberwolves' 11-36 record, Love is not a lock to be selected.

 

Were Love to be passed over, it would basically be unprecedented. Under the new incarnation of WARP, the best season ever by a non-All-Star came from Mookie Blaylock in 1996-97, when his 19.5 WARP ranked third in the league. However, this is an example of a player's strengths matching up perfectly with what one metric values. Blaylock was eighth in PER and 18th in Win Shares; he probably should have been an All-Star (fans voted in Joe Dumars, in the twilight of his career, and coaches went for Terrell Brandon and Tim Hardaway, both solid in their own right) but his numbers weren't eye-popping like Love's.

 

In part, Love's problem is the caliber of the competition. Of the league's top 32 players by WARP, as many as nine of them (if you include Tim Duncan and Pau Gasol) are Western Conference power forwards, which is ridiculous. Power forward might be the preeminent NBA position with the decline of center, but just three East fours have been so valuable. Simply, the West's big men have all stayed healthy and had great seasons, which means someone good is going to be left out.

 

Still, when we compare the nominees in a moment, you'll see that Love's WARP total is nearly double that of guys like LaMarcus Aldridge and David West. To look past him, there ought to be a pretty compelling reason, and I don't see it. The candidate, obviously, is Love's defense. Minnesota has in fact been much worse defensively with Love on the floor. Love's individual defensive metrics are acceptable. He's got a .920 dMult, which indicates starting power forwards have been eight percent less effective against the Timberwolves this season. According to Synergy Sports, Love allows .91 points per defensive possession, which is below average but better than Gasol (.92) and Blake Griffin (.93).

 

The best argument against Love might be that he's been outplayed head-to-head by the other contenders. Led by LaMarcus Aldridge torching Love three times, the five true power forwards in the mix that have faced Love (Aldridge, Griffin, Dirk Nowitzki, Lamar Odom and David West) have averaged 23.7 points to Love's 18.4 in those games with excellent efficiency. (Love does hold a commanding edge on the glass, with 14.5 rebounds per game to his opponents' 8.8.) But the games against other opponents count just the same, which is why I think it's a stretch to use this fact to keep Love out.

 

So Love is one of my reserve picks. Who joins him?

 

EAST GUARDS

 

Player Tm Win% WARP TS% Usg Reb% Ast% SB% Net+/-

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ray Allen BOS .587 6.1 .629 .205 6.1 4.1 1.7 + 4.6

Raymond Felton NYK .557 5.4 .525 .225 5.4 10.1 2.7 - 6.1

Rajon Rondo BOS .594 5.0 .531 .178 7.4 16.3 3.6 +10.3

Joe Johnson ATL .559 4.3 .526 .274 6.9 7.1 1.2 + 7.7 My picks: Ray Allen, Boston; Rajon Rondo, Boston

The East reserves will be heavy with Celtics, and that includes both selections at the guard spot. Allen is enjoying one of his finest seasons and remains the most dangerous player without the ball in the league. Among players using plays at a rate better than average, Allen ranks third in the NBA in True Shooting Percentage behind Steve Nash and teammate Shaquille O'Neal. Rondo, meanwhile, has been the most effective of the candidates on a per-minute basis. His passing is one of the reasons his Boston teammates continue to play so effectively at such an advanced age.

 

EAST FORWARDS

 

Player Tm Win% WARP TS% Usg Reb% Ast% SB% Net+/-

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Paul Pierce BOS .627 7.2 .628 .240 8.7 4.5 2.9 +16.1

Josh Smith ATL .607 6.7 .535 .243 14.9 4.7 5.8 + 8.1

Kevin Garnett BOS .638 5.5 .581 .225 17.4 3.7 4.5 +14.7

Andre Iguodala PHI .582 4.6 .543 .187 9.1 7.1 3.4 + 3.6

Chris Bosh MIA .551 4.4 .563 .241 13.0 2.4 2.7 + 7.1

Carlos Boozer CHI .581 3.2 .577 .284 18.0 3.3 2.1 + 3.4 My picks: Kevin Garnett, Boston; Paul Pierce, Boston

Let's continue our Celtics sweep with both forwards as well. Pierce is a no-brainer; he leads this group in both bottom-line categories. Pierce doesn't get enough credit for his evolution into an efficient scorer both inside and outside the arc. He's only a hair behind Allen in terms of True Shooting Percentage and is nearly as strong as a three-point shooter. Garnett anchors a Boston defense that ranks second in the league. Of the Celtics' regulars, Garnett has had far and away the largest defensive impact when on the court. He's also been as effective as anyone on a per-minute basis, so he makes it despite the time he missed due to injury.

 

 

http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1443

 

 

 

[Newman]

Kevin Love's stats is [expletive]ing crazy. I don't care that the T'Wolves only have 10 or so wins, he is doing everything in his power to make them win. He is an all-star for sure.

 

I agree with all but one for the reserve list of the East. Bosh is getting his numbers, but I feel that Felton is more deserving of a spot as he is as big of a factor as Amare for the Knicks' success to date. Bosh got LBJ and Wade to help carry the Heat.

 

For the West, I would love to see LaMarcus Aldridge get a spot, but unfortunately he is the odd man out. Can't argue with the rest of the list.

[Sħãlïq™]

I agree that Aldridge's been beastin'..... BTW, Where's Bynum???!

Edited February 2, 2011 by Shaliq

[Erick Blasco]

Kevin Love's stats is [expletive]ing crazy. I don't care that the T'Wolves only have 10 or so wins, he is doing everything in his power to make them win. He is an all-star for sure.

 

I agree with all but one for the reserve list of the East. Bosh is getting his numbers, but I feel that Felton is more deserving of a spot as he is as big of a factor as Amare for the Knicks' success to date. Bosh got LBJ and Wade to help carry the Heat.

 

For the West, I would love to see LaMarcus Aldridge get a spot, but unfortunately he is the odd man out. Can't argue with the rest of the list.

 

Felton's been terrific, but if you look at his overall shooting percentages this year, they aren't that great. His TS% is only 52%. That's below average. A lot of the success he's had comes from pace. He's certainly had a good year, and he's helped turn the Knicks around, but people forget how solid Bosh has been the entire season. I'm not the biggest Bosh guy, but I think too much has been made over his bad first couple of weeks and people have ignored how consistently solid he's been this season. Felton would be my 13th man.

[Erick Blasco]

I agree that Aldridge's been beastin'..... BTW, Where's Bynum???!

 

He's only played less than half the year. I don't think it's fair to a great crop of West bigs to give Bynum a nod. Plus, LMA was pretty mediocre until Roy sat down.

 

I fundamentally don't like playing players on teams that have zero chance at making the playoffs which is why I don't have Blake and Love on my All-Star rosters.

[The Regime]

According to Synergy Sports, Love allows .91 points per defensive possession, which is below average but better than Gasol (.92) and Blake Griffin (.93).

 

Wow, I knew Pau's defense was bad but this just takes it to a whole new level. If Pau can make the All-Star team (and likely start), then I don't see why Kevin Love should be snubbed. Defense was never really a strong measure for an all-star anyway.

Edited February 2, 2011 by Confidence

[Check my Stats]

Kevin Love's stats is [expletive]ing crazy. I don't care that the T'Wolves only have 10 or so wins, he is doing everything in his power to make them win. He is an all-star for sure.

 

I agree with all but one for the reserve list of the East. Bosh is getting his numbers, but I feel that Felton is more deserving of a spot as he is as big of a factor as Amare for the Knicks' success to date. Bosh got LBJ and Wade to help carry the Heat.

 

For the West, I would love to see LaMarcus Aldridge get a spot, but unfortunately he is the odd man out. Can't argue with the rest of the list.

 

Except play defense.

[Newman]

Except play defense.

 

He is just following the rest of the team on that one.

 

As for Bosh, I am probably hatin' on him, but I do not believe he should be an all-star, simply because he does not play good defense on most PFs, hence causing many of the Heat losses, and whenever I see him all he is doing is making open 15 foot jumpers which is made because of LeBron and Wade.

[MainEv3nt]

no dirk?

[Erick Blasco]

no dirk?

 

He picked Dirk.