Hollinger's Raptor Player Ratings

[Built Ford Tough]

Ed Davis:

 

Nonetheless, his high shooting percentage and low turnover rate as a rookie suggest he may not advance much in the next year or two -- most rookies with that statistical profile make little or no progress in Year 2. It is likely those numbers will regress to the mean, so even if he develops in other areas his PER is likely to stay in the same neighborhood.

 

 

DeMar DeRozan

 

Defensively, DeRozan has some tools but has yet to use them and didn't seem terribly interested in figuring out how he might do so; one wonders how much was him and how much was the laissez-faire culture in Toronto.

 

Nonetheless, wing players who can get a point every two minutes don't grow on trees, and it was only DeRozan's second season. His game still has major flaws, but it also has major strengths; if he can just become mediocre-to-average in the weak areas, he'll be a star.

 

 

Jerryd Bayless

 

Defensively, Bayless picks up cheap fouls trying to pressure opponents -- only five point guards fouled with greater frequency, yet he hardly ever stole the ball. He also struggled in pick-and-roll defense and staying with quicker guards; overall, Synergy Stats rated him the second-worst point guard. Partly that's because he didn't have much help from the crew behind him, but the lack of a good place to hide him remains the biggest obstacle to playing time for Bayless. He has the offensive chops to be, at worst, a solid third guard, but the permissive D may keep him in a lesser role.

 

 

James Johnson

 

Johnson can finish and draw fouls, however, and defensively he's shown some intriguing skills. He led all small forwards in blocks per minute and had a very solid rebound rate, but he also had the fifth-highest foul rate at his position. Similarly, he offset a high rate of steals with myriad gambles that ended with him at the half-court circle and his man hanging on the rim.

 

 

Andrea Bargnani

 

The biggest challenge for Dwane Casey will be getting Bargnani to quit being such a wimp. His defensive stats are absolutely pathetic. Last season the Raptors were 6.45 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the court, while the year before the differential was 9.10. And that's the best set of numbers on his résumé.

 

Want more? Among centers he was last in both blocks per minute and rebounds, and sixth from the bottom in steals. According to 82games.com, Bargnani was savaged by opposing centers for a 21.1 PER; essentially, an average center became an All-Star at the mere sight of Bargnani.

 

Wait, it gets worse. Using regularized adjusted plus-minus, Bargnani was the worst defensive big man in the entire league last season. Technically, there are two different ways to do this method -- one here and one here; conveniently, both had Bargnani as the league's worst defensive frontcourt player.

 

 

Jose Calderon

 

Both subjectively and statistically, Calderon's defense improved in 2010-11. But it's not like it could have become worse. Calderon at least made offensive players take a more circuitous path around him, which would have given his bigs more time to help at the rim had they been interested in such a concept. Still, Synergy Stats rated him the league's third-worst point guard last season.

 

 

Amir Johnson

 

I was skeptical of Johnson's contract because I didn't think he could stay on the floor long enough to make his high-percentage shooting of much benefit. But last season he cut the fouls enough to average 25.7 minutes per game; while his defense remained a negative, his 17.67 PER offset it.

 

Johnson still fouls way too much -- only seven power forwards were found guilty more often -- but his rate of one every 7.0 minutes at least makes it plausible to start him. Johnson was also guilty of the defensive lowlight of the year for Toronto, which is saying something given this team's porous D: Against New Jersey, he allowed the ponderously slow Brook Lopez to catch the ball at midcourt, breeze past him off the dribble and dunk on Andrea Bargnani.

 

 

Jonas Valanciunas

 

Valanciunas' translated European stats suggest he'll be solid player right away, and given that he's only 19 he could become a star. As a finisher around the basket he reminds one of Andris Biedrins, back when Biedrins was still alive, but Valanciunas has a better frame and one hopes he'll be able to pack more muscle on to it as he grows. Additionally, Valanciunas is a good foul shooter -- a notable contrast to Biedrins -- and could be a solid midrange shooter as a pro.

 

He'll spend this season in Lithuania and will likely struggle to check opposing post players initially when he comes to the U.S., but to get a center with star potential with the fifth pick was a great move for the Raptors.

 

 

Nothing really of note here, if you ask me. Hollinger basically says that the Raptors suck on defense, which is obvious. Still, I figured I would post this in case anybody wanted to see it.

[Check my Stats]

Pretty much spot on with Demar. I also think Bayless is better than his stats suggest, but he needs to be given the ball and run with it.. throw him to the wolves and see how he responds. We need to know what we have with him before the draft.