Built Ford Tough Posted January 18, 2012 Report Share Posted January 18, 2012 With the Bobcats struggles this season (as expected, of course) it seems like Henderson's very strong start has gone somewhat unnoticed. After a very disappointing rookie season that saw him average just 2.6 ppg on 35.6 FG% and appear in only 43 games, Henderson has really come on strong over the past little while. He improved his scoring to 9.6 a game on 45.4 FG% last season. At first glance those aren't really anything special, but if you look at his pre and post all-star break performances you will see that Henderson averaged 14.3 ppg on 45% shooting in the 26 games after the break. He has continued that strong play into the start of his 3rd season by averaging 15 ppg on 47 FG% in the first 15 games of his third NBA season. He has done this despite not having a terribly high increase in USG% (19.9 to 21.3). However, despite his increased scoring numbers, his advanced metrics suggest that he hasn't improved all that much. His PER is nearly identical to last season, his TS% is the same, his DRTG is the same and his ORTG has actually dropped. Basically all of his rebounding and assist percentages are identical this season as well. So what do you believe Henderson's ceiling to be? Has he basically peaked as a player and his improved scoring numbers this season is entirely due to the increase in minutes played and chances, or does he has some untapped potential? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owner Real Deal Posted January 19, 2012 Owner Report Share Posted January 19, 2012 However, despite his increased scoring numbers, his advanced metrics suggest that he hasn't improved all that much. His PER is nearly identical to last season, his TS% is the same, his DRTG is the same and his ORTG has actually dropped. Basically all of his rebounding and assist percentages are identical this season as well.I hate some of those stats, though. Offensive and defensive ratings are very dependent on how well a team produces on both ends of the court. Raja Bell is a great example of this...a player who has always been a very good defender, but if you go look up his defensive ratings, you'll see that they are horrible (110 and 111 in those years with the Suns, who were a bad defensive team), and it's all because of the team. http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bellra01.html Check out Tayshaun Prince's defensive ratings, after the Pistons lost Larry Brown and pieces of their team. http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/princta01.html ------------ With that said, yes, Henderson is doing pretty damn good in Charlotte, better than I imagined he would. He's a decent rebounder for his size, and he's far more efficient than DJ Augustin, who I usually find myself yelling at when I do watch the Cats (and root for them). If Charlotte would shoot a higher percentage, as a team, and stop turning the ball over, they'd be a playoff team, despite their pathetic defense (in the East, it's not hard to slip into the 8th spot). Being a decent team means people start paying attention, and that's really what Henderson needs. Not going to happen, though, until Kemba breaks out and takes over the starting PG spot (and who knows if he'll do that). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AboveLegit Posted January 19, 2012 Report Share Posted January 19, 2012 I see his potential as a very good starter on a contender. He has shown the ability at times to create his own shot this season, but he needs major work on his ball handling, slashing ability (that includes finishing), and consistently hitting his outside shot. He's a good spot up shooter and defender, but he struggles as a go to scorer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nitro Posted January 19, 2012 Report Share Posted January 19, 2012 I hate some of those stats, though. Offensive and defensive ratings are very dependent on how well a team produces on both ends of the court. Raja Bell is a great example of this...a player who has always been a very good defender, but if you go look up his defensive ratings, you'll see that they are horrible (110 and 111 in those years with the Suns, who were a bad defensive team), and it's all because of the team. http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bellra01.html Check out Tayshaun Prince's defensive ratings, after the Pistons lost Larry Brown and pieces of their team. http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/princta01.html Bell was always an overrated defender IMO. Prince started to shoulder far more offensive load 4-5 years ago, and his commitment to defense has dropped significantly...now he just cares about being a chucker on bad teams. The truly great defenders tend to seperate themselves with Drtg. It doesn't always happen, but it's not a terrible statistical gauge. With that said, yes, Henderson is doing pretty damn good in Charlotte, better than I imagined he would. He's a decent rebounder for his size, and he's far more efficient than DJ Augustin, who I usually find myself yelling at when I do watch the Cats (and root for them). I've actually been quite impressed with Augustin this season. It's probably because he's in a contract year, but he's been good in PnR's, played some tough basketball, hustles, and his stats reflect it....15.8PPG/7.5APG/3.6RPG, only 2.6 TO's and a .528 TS% (compared to Henderson's .510....so, actually DJ's been more efficient ). As for Henderson, I put him in a similar class to Wilson Chandler. He can generally give you 15/6, can do a little bit of everything scoring the ball but doesn't do any thing very well, will hit the boards well, and overall he can be a solid wing player. I don't think he'll ever be an all-star, but he can be a good complimentary wing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owner Real Deal Posted January 19, 2012 Owner Report Share Posted January 19, 2012 and a .528 TS% (compared to Henderson's .510....so, actually DJ's been more efficient ).Augustin has only scored 7-8 points more with free throws, so to me, his FT% doesn't make up for the extra 0.5% Henderson is shooting from the floor. If it does...well, I have a fantastic topic I'll post soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nitro Posted January 19, 2012 Report Share Posted January 19, 2012 Augustin has only scored 7-8 points more with free throws, so to me, his FT% doesn't make up for the extra 0.5% Henderson is shooting from the floor. If it does...well, I have a fantastic topic I'll post soon. Augustin is taking 4 more 3 pointers a game and is shooting 6% better on those shots...that's what creates the difference in efficiency, not the FT%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owner Real Deal Posted January 19, 2012 Owner Report Share Posted January 19, 2012 Augustin is taking 4 more 3 pointers a game and is shooting 6% better on those shots...that's what creates the difference in efficiency, not the FT%.Three-point field goals are included in the overall FG%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nitro Posted January 19, 2012 Report Share Posted January 19, 2012 Three-point field goals are included in the overall FG%. Yes, but 3 pointers count for more points. 60% shooting on 2 pointers equals 40% on 3 pointers. It's why Augustin averages more points despite taking half a shot less and shooting 6-7% worse from the field. It's why Billups is always really efficienct despite being ridiculously inefficient in overall FG% (his FT shooting also helps a lot, but it's because he takes so many 3's and hits them at a good clip). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owner Real Deal Posted January 19, 2012 Owner Report Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yes, but 3 pointers count for more points. 60% shooting on 2 pointers equals 40% on 3 pointers. It's why Augustin averages more points despite taking half a shot less and shooting 6-7% worse from the field. It's why Billups is always really efficienct despite being ridiculously inefficient in overall FG% (his FT shooting also helps a lot, but it's because he takes so many 3's and hits them at a good clip).So, with all of this said, you do realize that Kevin Martin is far, far more "efficient" than Michael Jordan, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nitro Posted January 19, 2012 Report Share Posted January 19, 2012 So, with all of this said, you do realize that Kevin Martin is far, far more "efficient" than Michael Jordan, right? Entirely different roles. You'd be hard-pressed to find another 30PPG scorer that led the league in usage and still had 4 consecutive seasons with a TS% over .600 like MJ did. But yes, Martin is generally very efficienct as far as TS% goes. Of course, there needs to be analysis involved to make sense of the stats, but Martin does what he does quite well (although this season he's sucked). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owner Real Deal Posted January 19, 2012 Owner Report Share Posted January 19, 2012 Entirely different roles. You'd be hard-pressed to find another 30PPG scorer that led the league in usage and still had 4 consecutive seasons with a TS% over .600 like MJ did. But yes, Martin is generally very efficienct as far as TS% goes. Of course, there needs to be analysis involved to make sense of the stats, but Martin does what he does quite well (although this season he's sucked).I actually had a cool topic to post, about Reggie's TS% over the years, but after seeing Martin's, it really ruined it for me, so I won't elaborate. I didn't think Martin's TS% was nearly 60% for his career. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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