BFT's 2012 Mock Draft V2

[Built Ford Tough]

So with the conference tournaments wrapping up yesterday, here is the 2nd of what should be 5 versions of my mock.

 

Just a quick FYI, I am using my judgement on who I think will enter the draft. So even though guys like Andre Drummond, Cody Zeller and Michael Kidd-Girlchrist have hinted at staying another year, I am including them because I believe they will enter (although Zeller wouldn't surprise me if he stayed). On the other hand, I am not including guys like Austin Rivers or James Michael McAdoo because I don't believe either will enter despite obvious first round talent. Some players, such as Fab Melo, Doron Lamb, Dion Waiters, Myck Kabongo and CJ Leslie I have no idea about, so I'm just going to include them.

 

Also, unlike last time I am going to take all trades into consideration. Last time I left teams like Dallas, LA Clippers, etc.. with their own picks but this time I'll transfer them over to their rightful owners. I forgot to do that last time, so I apologize for that.

 

Other than that, I'm following the same guidelines as my first edition.

 

So with that said, here we go:

 

1. Charlotte Bobcats: PF Anthony Davis, Freshman, Kentucky

 

Davis is going to go first overall regardless of who is picking first come June 28th. He possesses the rare combination of size and skill combined with elite athleticism, length and motor. Towards the end of the SEC regular season Davis was given a more promminent roll in Kentucky's offense and took full advantage showing a much more refined offensive game than originally thought, which only further cemented his status as the best prospect in this draft class.

 

 

2. Washington Wizards: SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Feshman, Kentucky

 

UNC small forward Harrison Barnes is another possibility with this pick, but he has struggled down the stretch and it has resulted in many people ranking MKG as the better small foward prospect. A strong tournament from Barnes can just as easily elevate himself back into this position.

 

As for Kidd-Gilchrist, he gives the Wizards the huge character boost that they need. He has elite defensive potential and projects to be one of the league's premier perimeter defenders for years to come. He is also a great rebounder from the small forward spot, has a relentless motor, is a fantastic leader and gives this Wizards team a toughness that they desperately need. His offense is still inconsistent and that may be worrisome given that if he is never able to put it together on that end of the floor, Washington will likely have used a 2nd overall pick on a role player, possibly the best role player in the league, but still a role player. However, given his passion for the game and awesome work ethic, he should develop into a reliable offensive option.

 

 

3. New Orleans Hornets: PF/C Andre Drummond, Conneticut, Freshman

 

Drummond has continued to battle inconsistency problems and has not lived up to the expectations he had coming out of high school. However, he still has elite physical tools and athleticism and he has shown glimpses of how dominant he can be when he puts it all together. With the Hornets being completely devoid of talent, Drummond's potential is simply too much to pass up. If they are able to re-sign Eric Gordon in the summer, him and Drummond have the potential to be the most formidable inside-out duo in the league.

 

 

4. Toronto Raptors: SF Harrison Barnes, North Carolina, Sophomore

 

Barnes hasn't lived up to expectations this year after deciding to comeback for his sophomore season. He has shown glimpses here and there of his talent, but he hasn't dominated like scouts expected of him. He has a lethal jumper, is a solid defender and rebounder, but he goes through stretches where he disappears and doesn't show the assertiveness that you would want in a number one option. Despite that, he has the size, shooting ability and basketball IQ that you want in a small forward and should make for a solid pro. If he ever manages to put it all together and become the player many expected him to be coming out of high school, he could become a top player in the league. A strong tournament run will likely see Barnes vault himself back into the discussion for the 2nd pick.

 

 

5. New Jersey Nets: PF Jared Sullinger, Ohio State, Sophomore

 

Sullinger is the best low post scorer in the draft, but what has impressed people most about him this season is the development of his outside game. He has added a reliable mid range jumper to his game and has also shown the ability to step outside and make the occasional college three. His bread and butter will always be his ability to score in the post and wreak havoc on the glass. There are concerns about his size and therefore his ability to defend opposing bigs at the next level, which may prompt a team to go with Kansas' Thomas Robinson instead, but Sullinger's refined post game could make him a forimidable low post presence that you can run an offense through and that may be too much for teams to pass up.

 

 

6. Sacramento Kings: PF Thomas Robinson, Kansas, Junior

 

Robinson is a high energy big man who has a very high motor, great athleticism and strength. He is experiencing a breakthrough season as the focal point of the Jayhawks team. He has shown much more skill offensively than originally thought and has continued to show a strong presence on the glass. With high usage players such as DeMarcus Cousins, Tyreke Evans and Marcus Thronton on the roster, the Kings need a guy who can bridge the talent and do the dirty work. Robinson and Cousins would combine to be one of the best rebounding duos in the game and would both be a load down low for opposing teams.

 

 

7. Detroit Pistons: PF John Henson, North Carolina, Junior

 

May be a bit of a reach here and many people will point to Indiana's Cody Zeller as being the player that Detroit should take, but pairing Hensons' defense with Monroe's excellent offensive game makes them a perfect compliment for each other. Henson has shown elite shot blocking skill during his time at UNC and is a two time ACC Defensive Player of the Year. He led the conference in both rebounding and shot blocking this year. His offense isn't anything special, but he has shown a strong left handed hook shot and is a strong finisher around the rim with his length and athleticism. Pairing him with Monroe and last years lottery pick Brandon Knight gives the Pistons a nice compliment of offense, shooting, defense and length.

 

 

8. Cleveland Cavaliers: SG Bradley Beal, Florida, Freshman

 

Beal is just a very well rounded player. He is arguably the best rebounding guard in all of college basketball, has a strong jumper, can handle the ball, has solid athleticism and a good feel for the game. He has struggled at times throughout the season as he is stuck out of position with the Gators and at times is forgotten in the offense which has resulted in him forcing shots or drives to compensate. There are concerns about his size, but his long wingspan should make up for it, should he measure under 6'4. Over the past month, Beal has established himself as the best shooting guard in this class and with the Cavs locked in at the 1, 4 and 5, Beal makes perfect sense to grow with fellow last years lottery picks Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson.

 

 

9. Milwaukee Bucks: PF Cody Zeller, Indiana, Freshman

 

Zeller has burst onto the scene this year by leading Indiana to wins over powerhouses such as Kentucky and Ohio St. He is the Hoosier's leading scorer and has a nice feel around the basket. He runs the floor very well, is a high efficiency player who always plays within his limits and doesn't force his game. He has solid athleticism but will never blow you away with a highly athletic play, but rather will beat you with his skill set. He would rather go around you than through you as he utilizes fakes very well to keep the defense off guard. Zeller will certainly have a long, successfull career regardless of if he declares this year or not.

 

 

10. Utah Jazz (From Golden State): SG Jeremy Lamb, Conneticut, Sophomore

 

Like the rest of the Huskies, Lamb has struggled with erratic and inconsistent play this season. There are times he looks like a future number one option and there are other moments where you don't even notice him on the floor. He is very good at using screens to free himself up for open jumpers but he isn't limited to being just an off the ball scorer. While he doesn't have a great handle, he does have the ability to break his man down off of the bounce with a strong crossover. He doesn't have great size at the shooting guard position as he is just 6'5, but he has tremendous length with a wingspan that is around 7 feet long. This length makes him able to rise over defenders to shoot, allows him to contest shots and play the passing lanes really well.

 

 

11. Utah Jazz: PG Damian Lillard, Weber State, Junior

 

Lillard exploded onto the scene this year with a superb junior season playing for the relatively unknown Weber State. He is one of the most explosive scorers in the country who can beat you both inside, outside and off the dribble. He had the 2nd best PER among any college player this year, trailing only future first overall pick Anthony Davis. There are concerns about his playmaking, vision and whether he is a true point guard. He played for a small school in a small conference which makes some people hesitant about him as well. Is he really this good or did he benefit from playing weak competition? These are both valid concerns, but at the end of the day Lillard is a talented basketball player and the best point guard prospect in this draft.

 

 

12. Phoenix Suns: PF Perry Jones III, Baylor, Sophomore

 

Jones may be the most natrually gifted player in this draft. He has great size, length, athleticism and skill. On paper, Jones is a top 3 pick in this draft. However, he has been a huge disappointment this season. He becomes invisible for extended periods of time. We aren't talking just minute to minute here, but game by game. During Baylor's final handful of conference games Jones averaged less than 10 points a game and was a complete non factor. He did bounce back in the Big 12 tournament with a dominant performance against Kansas St and two solid performances against Kansas and Missouri. If he has a strong showing in the NCAA Tournament he will see his stock soar back into the discussion for a top 5 pick. However, if he has another disappearing act he just may find himself slip further and further down the draft board. With his talent, expect somebody to take a chance on him with a late lottery pick at the very least, probably even earlier.

 

 

13. Portland Trailblazers: C Tyler Zeller, North Carolina, Senior

 

Zeller runs the floor as well as any big man in the country. He has a strong hook shot with both his right and left hand. He is a very good free throw shooter for a big man and he is also a strong positional rebounder. Much like his younger brother, Zeller won't overwhelm you with his physical attributes. He is just a fundamentally sound basketball player and will have a long, successfull career because of it. He will never be an All-Star or win any major award but he will be a permanent fixture on contending teams.

 

 

14. New Orleans Hornets (From Minnesota): SF Quincy Miller, Baylor, Freshman

 

Miller hasn't had the season expected with the Bears. Whether it is because of lingering problems with his knee injury he suffered his season year of high school, not fitting in with the Baylor offense or just needing time to adjust to the college game, he has had an up and down season. One game he will look like the Kevin Durant-lite player many people projected him to be coming out of high school and the next game he will barely have an impact at all. He has a smooth shooting stroke and can play both inside and out. He is capable of creating his own shot, although he may struggle at the next level if he is never able to regain his athleticism that he lost after blowing out his knee.

 

 

15. Houston Rockets (From New York): SF Moe Harkless, St. John's, Freshman

 

 

16. New Jersey Nets (From Houston): SG/SF Terrence Ross, Washington, Sophomore

 

 

17. Boston Celtics: C Meyers Leonard, Illinois, Sophomore

 

 

18. Los Angeles Lakers (From Dallas): PG Kendall Marshall, North Carolina, Sophomore

 

 

19. Denver Nuggets: SF/PF Terrence Jones, Kentucky, Sophomore

 

 

20. Atlanta Hawks: PF Arnett Moultrie, Mississippi State, Junior

 

 

21. Boston Celtics (from LA Clippers): SF Jeff Taylor, Vanderbilt, Senior

 

 

22. Indiana Pacers: PG Myck Kabongo, Texas, Freshman

 

 

23. Philadelphia 76ers: PF/C Patric Young, Florida, Sophomore

 

 

24. Memphis Grizzlies: PG/SG Tony Wroten, Washington, Freshman

 

 

25. Los Angeles Lakers: SG Dion Waiters, Syracuse, Sophomore

 

 

26. Orlando Magic: SF/PF Tony Mitchell, North Texas, Freshman

 

 

27. San Antonio Spurs: SF/PF CJ Leslie, NC State, Sophomore

 

 

28. Miami Heat: C Joshua Smith, UCLA, Sophomore

 

 

29. Oklahoma City Thunder: C Fab Melo, Syracuse, Sophomore

 

 

30. Chicago Bulls: SG Doron Lamb, Kentucky, Sophomore

[Real Deal]

YES, YES, YES to Marshall. I pray he drops to us, but I'm not going to get too excited yet.

 

EDIT: Moved it back to the mock draft forum, Sean...haha. I changed my mind, went ahead and placed the draft forum on the main index page early.

[Hayes1]

Rather have Tony Wroten. Dude is a beast and really great passer!

Edited March 12, 2012 by Hayes1

[Built Ford Tough]

Lol, no worries.

 

As far as Marshall goes, I do think that he will end up going higher if he has a strong tournament run, especially if he continues to score the ball as he has over his past 4 (15 ppg on 52.7 FG% and 45.8 3PT%). He will never be much of a defender and I think people are ok with that given his playmaking ability. His playmaking ability alone will get him drafted in the first round but if he ends up proving that he can also chip in with his own scoring I see that elevating him into the lottery. With Phoenix and Utah both in desperate need of point guards, I definitely think he ends up going to one of them.

 

However, if he proves these last few offensive games are an anomoly and he goes back to the Marshall of the beginning of the season (didn't score in double digits until his 17th game of the season) I can see teams being hesitant to take him since he will really only be giving a team one thing. Of course that one thing is elite, but he would still be highly one dimensional.

[Flash]

Josh Smith could turn out to be a great pick. Once he gets around the Heat culture and pro's like the Big 3 and Haslem it'll do wonders for him.

 

If we end up with any of Patric Young, Josh Smith, Kevin Jones, Fab Melo or Draymond Green I'll be very happy.

Edited March 12, 2012 by Flash

[Built Ford Tough]

Rather have Tony Wroten. Dude is a beast and really great passer!

 

I like Wroten's ability to break down the defense, his size and his athleticism, but there is one serious red flag about his game for me that makes me question whether he will ever be able to be a point guard or if his career is destined to be a combo guard off the bench.

 

That red flag is his assist/turnover ratio.

 

 

He averaged 4 turnovers a game this year and 3.6 assists a game.

 

Compare that to other combo guards' numbers in college:

 

Jerryd Bayless @ Arizona: 4 apg/3 topg

 

OJ Mayo @ USC: 3.3 apg/3.5 topg

 

Jamal Crawford @ Michigan: 4.5 apg/3.1 topg

 

George Hill @ IUPUI: 3.3 apg/3.2 topg

 

 

I'm sure if I really looked hard I could find more examples, but these 4 prove my point.

 

The hope with all of these guys when they were drafted was that they would become point guards but all of them have ended up developing into combo guards who project as career 6th men at best. Based on what I saw from Wroten and combining it with what I saw from these guys at college (although I didn't see much of Crawford) it makes me think that Wroten's career will follow a similar trajectory. A team will draft him, try to develop him as a point guard and then eventually designate him as a scorer off the bench, just like what all of these guys have went through (or in Bayless' case, is currently going through in Toronto).

 

 

 

Josh Smith could turn out to be a great pick. Once he gets around the Heat culture and pro's like the Big 3 and Haslem it'll do wonders for him.

 

That is exactly why I had him go there.

 

He has talent but there is absolutely no accountability at UCLA right now (talk about a complete fall from grace for that program over the last few years) and he is allowed to just coast. If he were to get in shape and have people constantly pushing him, I can see him having a very good career.

 

Of course, I can also see him pulling a Michael Sweetney or Oliver Miller and eating himself out of the league. Miami can afford to take a gamble on a guy like him, though.

[Dash]

Great read.

 

I'd prefer Meyers Leonard over Harkless just because he's a center prospect although granted he's pretty raw. Houston made the mistake of picking the best player available on their draft (Marcus Morris) rather than filling a major need and taking Nikola Vucevic. Morris could always pan out but so far he hasn't been given the opportunity to do so with the glut of small forwards on the Rockets' roster (Budinger, Parsons, Terrence Williams). With the ongoing drama of Terrence Williams and Marcus Morris (both venting on Twitter and T-Will faking a stomach ache so he could leave the bench), I doubt Morey makes the same mistake of taking BPA over need at least with a mid first round pick. Leonard would definitely be the pick if he were available at #15.

 

Its pretty amazing how if the Knicks continue to dip that the Rockets could move up in the draft from the 15th pick to 9th. With Lowry possibly out for a month I wouldn't mind tanking so we can keep our pick, and go into the draft with two lottery picks but what happens at the trade deadline could very well change my mind. I would love to come out of the draft with one of the shooting guards (Beal, Lamb) and a center (Leonard, Zeller) on top of Donatas Motiejunas and Sergio Llull joining the team from overseas.

Edited March 13, 2012 by Dash

[Built Ford Tough]

Makes sense.

 

I'm just not much of a fan of Leonard and really like Harkless so I made Leonard go to my leas favourite team and Harkless go to a team I don't mind.

 

Seriously though, you make a lot of sense for why Leonard would be the more logical choice. I can't really argue with anything that you said. I just think that Harkless is going to be the better player and at the end of the day that is why I had him going to Houston instead of Leonard.

 

I fully admit to not knowing about all that drama you talked about, though, and had I known about it, I probably wouldn't have another small forward going to Houston.

[DunkinDerozan]

Really like the Barnes to the Raptors pick. I hope he can play well in the tournament and turn his game up again, but not play so well that he moves ahead of MKG.

 

As far as the rest of your picks, I think pretty much all of them are good spots for each player. You would no better than me, so i'm not going to judge your selections. The only one thing I don't see happening is Kendall Marshal falling to 18. A team like Phoenix who is most likely losing Steve Nash this year, or more likely Portland who has had PG troubles will scoop him up. He is proving lately that he is an elite playmaker, and would be a great fit for a team like Portland IMO.

[Built Ford Tough]

Like I said to Real Deal earlier, if Marshall proves he can consistently score the ball to keep defenses honest then he will go to one of Utah or Phoenix.

 

If the inability to keep the defense honest continues to be a factor it greatly lowers his value.

 

He is so good as a playmaker that he will get drafted in the 1st round, but he needs to show more dimensions to his game if he is going to make the jump to the lottery.

 

Also, it isn't just me who thinks this as a lot of draft sites don't have him ranked in their top 14 on their top 100 rankings:

 

Draft Express - 19th

Chad Ford - 25th

NBAdraft.net - 12th (was 15th at the end of February)

MyNBAdraft.com - 15th

HoopsWorld - 18th

 

The tournament is huge for Marshall's draft stock, perhaps more so than any player. If he continues his very strong play in the ACC Tournament and the final games of the regular season, he becomes a lottery pick. If he doesn't, he stays around the 16-22 range, depending on team needs.

 

PS: Trust me, I want to put Marshall higher being a Tar Heel fan. He is my 2nd favourite player on that team and all of last season I was hoping Williams would come to his sense and start Marshall over the awful Drew (happened midway through the season). I just think he needs to show a more consistent offensive game to be a lottery pick in a deep draft like this (lacks real star potential, but the depth is fantastic).

[Flash]

I have my doubts that Marshall even leaves after this year.

[Built Ford Tough]

I have my doubts that Marshall even leaves after this year.

 

I think he does, although I wouldn't be too surprised if he stayed.

 

This is a weak draft for point guards which makes his stocker higher than in past years where we say anywhere from 2-4 point guards going in the lottery and another 2-4 going in the rest of the 1st round.

 

Carolina is also losing Zeller and likely losing Barnes and Henson as well which would likely factor into him deciding to leave, given his playing style and all.

 

If Barnes and/or Henson decide to stay (you never know with Barnes given how badly he wants a National Championship) I can definitely see him staying.

 

EDIT: I also forgot to mention last night that UNC has Marcus Paige coming next season. Paige is considered the best point in the 2012 class. Obviously he could backup Marshall, but him committing to UNC may be a sign that Marshall will be gone after this year.

 

Then again, it is a weak point guard class and despite being the top ranked point, Paige isn't a top 10 overall recruit.

[Dash]

Makes sense.

 

I'm just not much of a fan of Leonard and really like Harkless so I made Leonard go to my leas favourite team and Harkless go to a team I don't mind.

 

Seriously though, you make a lot of sense for why Leonard would be the more logical choice. I can't really argue with anything that you said. I just think that Harkless is going to be the better player and at the end of the day that is why I had him going to Houston instead of Leonard.

 

I fully admit to not knowing about all that drama you talked about, though, and had I known about it, I probably wouldn't have another small forward going to Houston.

 

Well a lot could change from now and Thursday's trade deadline, Houston is almost certainly going to make a trade happen and hopefully open up some playing time for guys like Marcus Morris. Terrence Williams is likely gone at the deadline for a 2nd round pick or he'll just rot at the end of the bench until his contract expires this offseason, and Budinger apparently would welcome a trade.

 

I'm not saying that the Rockets won't make the same mistake again but rather I hope Morey has learned his lesson about collecting too many assets and going so long without making a deal to make room in the rotation for a few of them. If there is too much of a disparity between Harkless and Leonard then I could picture Morey going for another small forward, he has always maintained that his philosophy is to take the best player available because you don't know how your roster will look like in a year or two. Small forward isn't exactly a position of strength although Parsons has shown he could be the long term starter, but I'd glady take a shot in the dark with Meyers Leonard rather than take another above average forward to add to our lot. That is just me personally, hopefully the Rockets could package the 15th pick (assuming the Knicks grab the 8th spot back from Milwaukee) along with a player to move up in the draft and get Tyler Zeller.

 

Then again with Lowry possibly out for a month you have to wonder that Houston will likely drop the 8th seed barring a significant trade meaning they could have a lottery pick even if the Knicks do make the playoffs. If that were the case then I wouldn't mind taking another forward (if he is the best player on the board) with the Knicks pick as long as the Rockets are able to bring in a center with their own pick (using both to trade up would be preferable though).

Edited March 13, 2012 by Dash

[Need4Sheed]

Dont see the Pistons taking Henson when they already have 2 twigs in Daye and Prince.

[Check my Stats]

Honestly anyone in the top 4 of Drummond, Davis, Barnes or MKG would be awesome, especially if we could nab another mid first rounder and try to pick up Marshall (Ed Davis + could be a nice deal for someone). Barnes fits so good with our current core, but the chance at Drummond or Davis would be amazing even at the expense of a big or two, those are the main 3 I want.

 

It is so important that we stay in the top 3-4 picks this year, if we don't then this whole things goes to shit.

[Built Ford Tough]

Dont see the Pistons taking Henson when they already have 2 twigs in Daye and Prince.

 

Daye isn't really a factor. He has played 27 games this year, is averaging just 14 minutes a game in those 27 games and hasn't played double digit minutes since Feb 12.

 

He has a TS% of 38, a 6.6 PER and a negative win share.

 

Basically, the guy is done in Detroit.

 

As far as Prince goes, sure he may be skinny, but its not like he is weak. In a few years he is likely going to play the veteran mentor role for this team anyways.

 

Like I said in the write up, I fully acknowledge that Henson going to Detroit at 7 may be a reach, so I can understand if you think he won't go there because he isn't worth the 7th pick. I just think stylistically he really makes sense with Monroe and Knight.