Gilbert's suspension a blessing in disguise?

[AboveLegit]

I'm not going to downplay the incident with Javaris Crittenton because it was a stupid move on Gil's part, but as I was watching their training camp practice last night, I noticed how much more healthy he looked on the court. Yes it is training camp, and we can't take much out of one 15 minute scrimmage, but this is different. I'm not talking about his talent level or whether or not he will drop 30 night in and night out, I'm simply referring to how he looks.

 

He is now 2 years removed from his last knee surgery, it normally takes a player a full 18 month recovery (obviously they rush back, which is why it is such a rarity to take the full time to recover), and he's had virtually 2 years to get back into shape. When Gil met with Ted Leonsis after his suspension ended, Ted simply told him to come back to camp in good shape. After seeing Gil on the court, I noticed how much quicker he was, and David Aldridge had stated that he's just as quick as he was 4 years ago.

 

I think he's now 100% healthy and ready to make a proper return to the league. If he can't make a successful comeback this year, I don't know what to say.

[Flash]

Can't wait to see him playing again. I really think that backcourt of him and Wall will work. Kinda like Monta and Curry on steroids.

[Dr. Feelgood]

I can't wait for Gil either. He's still easily one of my favorite players in the league, even during this whole situation, I didn't start to hate him like other people did. I realized it was a dumb mistake on Gil's part, people make mistakes, we move on from it. Can't wait.

[Hawks Fly High]

Plus the Wizards drafted John Wall and if they had Gilbert i think they would have won some more games which makes it highly unlikely they would have gotten Wall. Now they have a motivated Arenas + Wall

[Nitro]

The only positive thing I think will come of this is his trade value will skyrocket after being at an all-time low. I think the Arenas/Wall duo might work well, but much like the Slick Ricky/LeBron situation back in 2003, Arenas will hold up Wall's progress to eventually becoming the face of the franchise. Of course this situation is different because of Arenas' contract and status as being an elite player when healthy, but it is a similar situation. I think Arenas has worn out his stay in Washington and management will dump him the second they get the chance.

 

If Arenas comes out firing, I wouldn't be surprised to see him eventually in a Magic or Knicks (if they don't land Melo) uniform by the end of the season.

[Flash]

Gilbert would be perfect in either of those systems Nitro mentioned. I hope he doesn't go to either of those teams though because they're 2 of the Heat's rivals and Gil is one of my favorite players.

[AboveLegit]

The only positive thing I think will come of this is his trade value will skyrocket after being at an all-time low. I think the Arenas/Wall duo might work well, but much like the Slick Ricky/LeBron situation back in 2003, Arenas will hold up Wall's progress to eventually becoming the face of the franchise. Of course this situation is different because of Arenas' contract and status as being an elite player when healthy, but it is a similar situation. I think Arenas has worn out his stay in Washington and management will dump him the second they get the chance.

 

If Arenas comes out firing, I wouldn't be surprised to see him eventually in a Magic or Knicks (if they don't land Melo) uniform by the end of the season.

See, but here's what confuses me. If Arenas does indeed make a successful comeback, returns to his All Star form, and coexists with John Wall, why trade him? They invested so much in him, and if he isn't hurting the team, I think management will realize that and support him even more.

 

Losing Arenas would be a step back, and I don't think that's something we want to see happening. This backcourt has the potential to be very dangerous, and if it turns out to be as good as advertised on paper, we could become playoff contenders instantly.

 

I know there's a ton of external factors that comes into play here and a ton of question marks yet to be answered, but it's something worth discussing.

[Sun Tzu]

I also can't wait to see how well Arenas can play alongside John Wall.

[Clutch]

i hope he stays healthy, people always got negative things to say about his game

[Dr. Feelgood]

I honestly don't think Gil has worn out his welcome in Washington. If he can co-exist with Wall and help mentor and tutor him to become a fantastic player, why trade him? It hurts their chances of making the playoffs when they can make them much sooner rather than later. With players like Blatche, Hinrich, Thornton, JHow, Yi, and McGee, this team has a lot of decent depth. Add in players like Morrison (MOST FINALS EXPERIENCE!!!), Nick Young, Mardy Collins, and Hilton Armstrong, I can definitely see this team making the playoffs this year if not, for sure next year. You definitely keep Arenas now for the time being.

[Poe]

I think the time off may have helped Arenas, since he could entirely focus on his health and not be pressured to play at a high level. Now that he's gotten that out of the way, there's no excuse to not perform to the best of his abilities.

 

 

So there are two questions to the situation. 1) Will Gilbert Arenas regain his 29 ppg scoring form he was four years ago, or at least close to it? And 2) How well will he co-exist with John Wall?

 

 

Based on how well he plays and how well his game compliments Wall's and vise versa, that should determine whether he remains in the Wizard's longterm plans or not. If one or the other fails, then they may need to trade him. The Cavs and the Raptors both have trade exceptions to get his contract off Washington's shoulders.

[Nitro]

See, but here's what confuses me. If Arenas does indeed make a successful comeback, returns to his All Star form, and coexists with John Wall, why trade him?

 

Arenas has what, about 4 years, $80M left on his contract? In the last 3 seasons he has played a total of 47 games of a possible 246...that is 19%. In that 19% he put up about 20PPG on roughly 40% shooting, low 30% from 3. Nearly 4 TO's per game.

 

Now, the bulk of those missed games were from serious knee injuries. The other missed games, as we know, were for the gun suspension. Before that suspension, Arenas was clearly not the same physicaly and underperforming on the biggest underachiever in the league, and not being the more passive Agent Zero he vowed to be (yes, he averaged less points and 7 assists, but he was taking only 1 less shot in 5 less minutes than he was from 2005-2007).

 

------------------------------------

 

Ok...so let me break it down. Arenas is a guy who's not even halfway through his max deal, and with the new CBA that could be a huge pill to swallow. Now, in the last 3 seasons he has played less than once every 5 games, and in those games he not only has statistically not played like a max player, but he has made little to no impact on the team and it's winning percentage. He missed nearly 2 seasons solely due to knee injuries, and only on VERY rare occasions do severely injured knees get to the point where they are as strong and healthy as they once were. The other funny thing about major knee injuries is the likelihood of a player not having problems down the road with that knee is very, very slim. Ok, now let's factor in that he missed over half of last season for a serious felony which, along with his piss-poor/immature reaction to the situation, embarassed the Wizards organization and gave them insanely bad publicity. The final piece to the puzzle is they just drafted an insanely talented, mature kid who the organization plans to be the face of the franchise for hopefully the next decade. Knowing that Arenas, even when he was at his best (a level which he has a very, VERY slim chance of ever getting to again, let alone sustaining), is an inefficient 20+ shot per game chucker who dominates the ball, the likelihood of the two players co-existing very well once Wall starts to really blossom is slim. If Wall was a true, elite playmaking PG like Paul or Nash, it'd be a totally different situation...but he's not. He's more Derrick Rose than Chris Paul, and that doesn't bode well for Wall's development as a franchise player if Arenas sticks around for the rest of his disgusting large contract.

 

Basically what I'm trying to say is that if he's truly healthy (which the chances of him sustaining for the next 4 years are slim), then this season could be the team's only chance to get rid of him and his monstrous contract for some talent, cap relief and maybe some draft picks. You get rid of the guy who embarassed the franchise, give the team major cap flexibility (which I said could be crucial with the new CBA), and give the keys of the franchise over to a guy who will be supressed if Arenas stays in town.

[Poe]

Basically what I'm trying to say is that if he's truly healthy (which the chances of him sustaining for the next 4 years are slim), then this season could be the team's only chance to get rid of him.

 

 

I don't understand why you bring up the history of injuries and the suspension then go on to say that because of that, this is their only chance to trade him. If anything, the longer we are into Gil's contract, the easier it will be to trade him. The longer he proves he can stay healthy, and the longer he proves he can stay crime free, and the less amount of years are left in his contract, the more likely teams will be interested.

 

Right now, teams are disinterested in him because of the recent history behind Gilbert. But if Gilbert plays well enough in comparison to his contract and does everything stated above, the only reason that teams may be disinterested later on is because of the CBA, from what I can tell about it.

Edited September 29, 2010 by Poe

[Nitro]

I don't understand why you bring up the history of injuries and the suspension then go on to say that because of that, this is their only chance to trade him. If anything, the longer we are into Gil's contract, the easier it will be to trade him. The longer he proves he can stay healthy, and the longer he proves he can stay crime free, and the less amount of years are left in his contract, the more likely teams will be interested.

 

Right now, teams are disinterested in him because of the recent history behind Gilbert. But if Gilbert plays well enough in comparison to his contract and does everything stated above, the only reason that teams may be disinterested later on is because of the CBA, from what I can tell about it.

 

Read my post more carefully, and my post before that more carefully. I'm saying right now his value is at an all-time low. If he truly is healthy right now and starts the season out firing (no pun intended), then his value will skyrocket. That will help the Wizards get much closer to equal value in return. Because of how Arenas embarassed the organization, because of how likely it is for him to have complications with the knee in the future, because his style of play will stifle the face of the franchise once Wall starts to truly blossom, because his contract is a cap-killer and will be even a bigger issue once the new CBA comes...because of all that, if he is healthy this season, he should be dealt if they get a decent offer.

[Poe]

his style of play will stifle the face of the franchise once Wall starts to truly blossom, because his contract is a cap-killer and will be even a bigger issue once the new CBA comes...because of all that, if he is healthy this season, he should be dealt if they get a decent offer.

 

We don't know that. That has yet to be seen. Whether Arenas should be traded now is based on how he plays and co-exists with Wall, like I said in my first post. We don't know if Arenas will "stifle the face of the franchise" or if he and Wall will become the best guard duo in the league.

 

Again, the team needs to see if Arenas should be traded based on his play before making any decisions about their future.

[Nitro]

We don't know that. That has yet to be seen.

 

They are two ball-dominant guards in PG bodies, yet neither of them are particularly great playmakers. Last season, a "passive" Arenas still took nearly 20FGA's in 36MPG. Do the math. It may work out this season as Wall is a rookie, but if he is to develop into the franchise player, he is going to have to have the ball in his hands more than Arenas will allow. Neither of them are effective off-ball players. Something has to give. It's much like the LeBron/Slick Ricky situation in 2003, where the two did work together pretty well in the time they spent and LeBron did defer...but Cleveland knew it was best to get Ricky out of there and let LeBron develop into that franchise player. The Arenas/Wall situation is different in many regards from that, but I see some stark similarities as well.

 

Whether Arenas should be traded now is based on how he plays and co-exists with Wall, like I said in my first post.

 

His contract, his track record (both on and off the court), his injury history and the franchise's direction are all much bigger factors IMO.

[Poe]

1988-89 Pistons won a championship with two ball-dominant guards in 6'3'' Joe Dumars and 6'1'' Isiah Thomas. Dumars took 19 FGA per game in his prime, and Isiah took the exact number in his own prime.

 

 

Isiah was a terrific passer, though. John Wall may develop into one. We'll have to wait and see.

[Nitro]

1988-89 Pistons won a championship with two ball-dominant guards in 6'3'' Joe Dumars and 6'1'' Isiah Thomas. Dumars took 19 FGA per game in his prime, and Isiah took the exact number in his own prime.

 

 

Isiah was a terrific passer, though. John Wall may develop into one. We'll have to wait and see.

 

1) Dumars took 13FGA and Isiah took 15FGA their first championship run. Each took 1 more FGA the 2nd run. Neither EVER took more than 19.0FGA in their careers, and they played in a faster-paced league. Arenas has taken more than 19.0FGA multiple times, including last season where he made it a point to be more passive.

 

2) You're talking about two of the top 50 players of all-time with different playing styles than Wall/Arenas (not to mention all the other stuff involved with Wall/Arenas, which is just as, if not more relevant to the discussion than if they will gel). And Dumars worked so well at 6'3'' because he was one of the top perimeter defenders of all-time. Arenas is far from that.

[Poe]

Nevertheless, they were both scorers that took a good number of shots, and they won a championship together. If they could do it, Wall and Arenas might be able to play well together. It still has yet to be seen.

[Nitro]

Nevertheless, they were both scorers that took a good number of shots, and they won a championship together. If they could do it, Wall and Arenas might be able to play well together. It still has yet to be seen.

 

The chances are slim enough that with all other things considered, which I talked about in rich detail earlier in this thread, it isn't even worth giving a chance past this season. The only real positive I see from the Wizards having a healthy Arenas this season, besides ticket sales, is getting his trade value up.

[Poe]

The chances are slim enough that with all other things considered, which I talked about in rich detail earlier in this thread, it isn't even worth giving a chance past this season. The only real positive I see from the Wizards having a healthy Arenas this season, besides ticket sales, is getting his trade value up.

 

Why is it not worth giving a chance? Why is it so imperative to trade him now than later? You haven't explained these things. You've only talked about his past (which all hurt his trade value more in the recent future than the distant future, like I've stated a few times now). I've made my case for why the team needs to wait on this decision.

[Nitro]

Why is it not worth giving a chance? Why is it so imperative to trade him now than later? You haven't explained these things. You've only talked about his past (which all hurt his trade value more in the recent future than the distant future, like I've stated a few times now).

 

READ my 1st and 2nd posts, very carefully. Specifically the 3rd paragraph in my 2nd post. I explain it very, very thoroughly.

[Poe]

READ my 1st and 2nd posts, very carefully. Specifically the 3rd paragraph in my 2nd post. I explain it very, very thoroughly.

 

Read it for the third time. Still talking about the past, and still doesn't answer my questions.

 

 

He's had injuries that's prevented him from playing, and slowed him down when played through them. He's recovered from those injuries.

 

He played well without Wall back when he was a healthy star. We'll see how he and Wall plays when they are together.

 

 

Again, 1) Why is it not worth giving a chance? 2) Why is it so imperative to trade Arenas right away?

Edited September 29, 2010 by Poe

[Real Deal]

I think the problem arises when Arenas promised everyone he was going to be more passive when he returned...yet, he wasn't. He was still chucking up shots.

 

Disregarding the injury history (which I really don't want to do, but whatever), you're asking one to defer to the other, or just completely ignore Blatche and Josh Howard.

 

No rookie point and a chucking two-guard will get into the playoffs shooting 18-20 shots each. Wall will have to become a traditional point, and it's very, very rare that it happens in 2-3 seasons.

 

Not only that, but Arenas will need the ball in his hands. Dumars was able to play off the ball very well. Gilbert has never, ever proven he can, and in the past, he has been stagnate when he's not running the offense. Definitely no Ray Allen.

 

So, not only will the Wizards need one player to change...they will need both to, and that's asking a lot, and it could be ruining Wall's development as a dominant point guard in this league. I don't think Arenas is worth that.

[Poe]

So, not only will the Wizards need one player to change...they will need both to, and that's asking a lot, and it could be ruining Wall's development as a dominant point guard in this league. I don't think Arenas is worth that.

 

That could very well happen, and on the flip side they could find a way to play well with each other. All I'm saying is to wait and see, then decide if Arenas needs to be traded if he does prove to hurt Wall's game.