Philadelphia Phillies 2012

[Phightins]

Pitchers and catchers are what? 2 and a half weeks away? 3 weeks maybe? Starting to get very fired up for the season.

 

Anyway, this was a very interesting offseason. Ruben Amaro did a few things well (his handling of the 3B situation and the Jimmy Rollins contract) and a few things horribly wrong ($60 million for Jonathan Papelbon and a guaranteed contract for Laynce Nix). I won't beat the Papelbon horse much more, but in short, it sucks. Papelbon is a fantastic pitcher, one of the 4 or 5 best around at what he does, but no relief pitcher is worth that much money, especially with all of the bargains that are out there to be had, and all of the talented kids we have in the high minors. Just a silly allocation of funds, and it could easily come back to haunt us when the team is trying to put together contract offers for Cole Hamels, Hunter Pence, etc.

 

Anyway....if I had to guess on an Opening Day roster right now...

 

C: Carlos Ruiz

1B: John Mayberry Jr.

2B: Chase Utley

3B: Placido Polanco

SS: Jimmy Rollins

LF: Laynce Nix

CF: Shane Victorino

RF: Hunter Pence

 

Bench:

Brian Schneider

Ty Wigginton

Jim Thome

Michael Martinez

Juan Pierre

 

Rotation:

1. Roy Halladay

2. Cliff Lee

3. Cole Hamels

4. Vance Worley

5. Joe Blanton

 

Bullpen:

Jonathan Papelbon

Antonio Bastardo

Dontrelle Willis

Michael Stutes

Kyle Kendrick

David Herndon

Michael Schwimer

 

 

1B and LF will likely be some rotation of Mayberry, Wigginton, Thome, and Nix until Ryan Howard is healthy. Sounds like Domonic Brown will be screwed over yet again and is bound for AAA, even though he should hands down be the LFer this season. This is why giving Laynce Nix a guaranteed MLB contract sucks, because there is less room for flexibility. I also have a feeling the bullpen decisions will piss me off, as I'd much rather give chances to guys like Phillippe Aumont, Justin De Fratus, Joe Savery, etc than Kendrick and Herndon. But whatever.

 

 

Anyway....opening rant complete! As always, barring the arrival of more Phillies fans to OTR, this will probably turn into Phightins' personal Phillies blog, but chime in with all opinions and thoughts!

[Phightins]

Word from Clearwater is that Ryan Howard is running and fielding ground balls. I guess this is encouraging. Not sure if this means anything different for his recovery time, but it can't be a bad thing.

[NomarFachix]

The guy at my work who took the picture of Howard in the handicap cart got a written warning for posting it online haha

[Phightins]

The guy at my work who took the picture of Howard in the handicap cart got a written warning for posting it online haha

 

Is this the same guy that wants the Flyers to trade for Rick Nash?

[fish7718]

Oh yay my least favorite thread on the forum!

 

Line up is not scary at all, not until Howard comes back at least, which I can't imagine is until at least after ASB even if he is taking ground balls. But who knows I'm from the Mets camp where a week long injury means your done for 3 years. Really gotta pray Chase stays healthy still Chase RoHo and Jimmy are all in their 30's, can they really carry the offense for another whole year. Just gotta be waiting on Chase's next injury. Lucky you got all that pitching but even they don't exactly have the fountain of youth.

 

Nice bullpen Dontrelle Willis lol

 

Don't worry no need to defend, Phillies prolly eek out another divsion title and Mets will finish last but how long will you guys be atop the NL East hm? A part of me thinks you should have let Rollins walk for a draft pick. Is he really that good anymore?

 

Wow just checked

Victorino - 31

Papelbon - 31 (was it a 4 or 5 year deal? lol)

Howard - 32

Rollins - 33

Chase - 33

Lee - 33

Halladay - 34

Polanco - 36 (can't believe he's actually sitll playing)

 

interesting

 

btw wheres Dom Brown? I know you addressed him in OP but how has he not won the job just by being Dom Brown lol? Laynce Nix what?

Edited February 29, 2012 by fish7718

[Phightins]

Oh yay my least favorite thread on the forum!

 

 

Line up is not scary at all, not until Howard comes back at least, which I can't imagine is until at least after ASB even if he is taking ground balls. But who knows I'm from the Mets camp where a week long injury means your done for 3 years. Really gotta pray Chase stays healthy still Chase RoHo and Jimmy are all in their 30's, can they really carry the offense for another whole year. Just gotta be waiting on Chase's next injury. Lucky you got all that pitching but even they don't exactly have the fountain of youth.

 

I am not nearly as concerned about Howard's absence as most Phillies fans, mostly because advanced stats have enlightened me about how overrated he is. It will hurt no doubt, but if Charlie finds a successful pattern for using Mayberry/Wigginton/Nix/Thome, we'll get some decent value out of the position.

 

I also agree that Chase's health will probably be the key to the entire lineup. I am not expecting him to return to vintage Chase Utley (at the plate at least, he is still an elite fielder despite all of the knee issues), but if he can at least stay on the field the entire year, I will be happy. Most of this will be a function of Charlie being smart and resisting the urge to play him every single day.

 

Nice bullpen Dontrelle Willis lol

 

Believe it or not, I love the Willis signing. Probably Amaro's best move of the winter. He has had absurdly good splits against left handed batters. If he can keep this up, and if Charlie uses him properly (this is a big if), Willis could easily be the best LOOGY we have had in a while. And if it doesn't work out this spring, he is on a minor league deal, so no sweat off the team's back.

 

As I am sure you figured out, I hate the other bullpen signings. Papelbon is awesome at what he does, but that contract is absurd. I am okay with the Chad Qualls contract, money-wise, however I am fully expecting Charlie to just hand him the 8th inning every night, and this is what I am not okay with. For the one position that the Phillies are pretty loaded with advanced prospects at, they sure did spend a lot of unnecessary money this winter.

 

Don't worry no need to defend, Phillies prolly eek out another divsion title and Mets will finish last but how long will you guys be atop the NL East hm? A part of me thinks you should have let Rollins walk for a draft pick. Is he really that good anymore?

 

Yeah he is still good. His bat wouldn't profile too well at almost any other position anymore, but it is still more than adequate for a starting MLB shortstop, and his defense is still out of this world. They had to sign him because replacing him with any other player short of Reyes would have been a huge drop-off. I am a pretty big fan of Freddy Galvis (22 year old who played in AAA last year), but it probably wasn't worth the risk to just hand him the job. Still not convinced he will hit enough in the Majors. Also, the Rollins contract is very team-friendly. Unlike with Papelbon, Amaro waited it out with Rollins and let the market set itself. Worked quite well.

 

Wow just checked

Victorino - 31

Papelbon - 31 (was it a 4 or 5 year deal? lol)

Howard - 32

Rollins - 33

Chase - 33

Lee - 33

Halladay - 34

Polanco - 36 (can't believe he's actually sitll playing)

 

interesting

 

Eh, it's whatever. Not so much concerned about age catching up to Halladay and Lee as I am with Utley and Howard.

 

btw wheres Dom Brown? I know you addressed him in OP but how has he not won the job just by being Dom Brown lol?

 

This is the question that all Phillies fans with a brain have been asking all winter. Really have no clue what this guy has to do to get a chance. He has already destroyed AAA, for an extended period of time. He only has 280 MLB plate appearances, and even though it may not look like it on the surface, they went about as well as could be expected. Seriously, compare it to the first 280 PAs of some of the top hitters in the game. I was reading yesterday that A-Rod's were even worse. Chase Utley's were about the same. Obviously those two have more value because of the positions they play, and how well they play them, but my point stands. Dom is going to be a pretty awesome hitter IMO, he just needs a chance. With Ibanez finally gone, this seemed like the perfect time to get him into the lineup. I still feel like he will get a chance some time this year, but he should already have the LF job won outright, and instead Amaro has publicly said Brown is headed for AAA. Makes no sense. When they sent him to AAA last year, they said it was so he could improve his route running and learn LF in general. When he is down there, he primarily was the DH. Makes absolutely no sense. Amaro is dumb.

 

Laynce Nix what?

 

http://i54.photobucket.com/albums/g96/philsphan1210/Am7sJtnCIAAXU0tjpg-large.jpg

 

But seriously, terrible contract. He has done nothing to warrant a guaranteed MLB contract, especially when you consider who he will be taking playing time from.

[NomarFachix]

holy monster nix

[fish7718]

Interesting to announce a guy going to AAA before the season even starts, has the be very disappointing for Phillies fans, I guess the organization must feel he needs some minor league development or something.

 

Good points, will be interesting to see the NL East play out, if the Marlins signings can lift them, or if the Braves young talent can make a big impact. Mets and Nationals at least a couple years off still, Nats prolly closer.

 

Laynce Nix lol dude must be one of those gym monsters. Forearms are scary

[Phightins]

Dontrelle Willis released. Damn, I was really hoping this one would work out. I still think he has value for a team with a savvy manager.

 

Also, the only real roster drama this year is for the 5th outfield spot, which appears to be a battle between Juan Pierre and Scott Podsednik. I will put my money on Podsednik, for no reason other than the fact that the Pierre is the 3rd 2003 Marlin to be a Phillie in the past 2 spring trainings, and the previous two were cut (Willis and Luis Castillo).

[Phightins]

Chase Utley will more than likely begin the season on the DL.

 

Really, this spring could not be going much worse. Every starting pitcher other than Joe Blanton is getting rocked (although this doesn't concern me all that much), but injury-wise, ohhhh boy are we in trouble. I think the lineup can survive without Ryan Howard, but without Utley too? This is an issue, to put it lightly.

[Need4Sheed]

LOL, Fish really hates the Phillies.

[Phightins]

Michael Martinez has a broken foot. Freddy Galvis officially the Opening Day 2nd baseman.

 

In hindsight, kind of wish we didn't trade Wilson Valdez. I certainly wouldn't want him getting any regular playing time, but it's just a depth issue. Martinez and Galvis are probably the only two guys in the organization (other than J Roll of course) capable of playing an MLB caliber shortstop. Now MiniMart is hurt and Galvis is needed at 2B.

 

Speaking of Galvis...the only bright side to Utley being out is that I am looking forward to seeing Galvis play regularly.

[EastCoastNiner]

I hate to break it to you, but the Phillies are going to suck. Cliff Lee is bound to suck as well.

 

How many healthy knees do the Phillies have?

[Phightins]

I hate to break it to you, but the Phillies are going to suck. Cliff Lee is bound to suck as well.

 

Define "suck". The offense was terrible last year and they won 102 games.

 

I'd also like to hear your logic on that Lee statement.

[Phightins]

Telling Laynce Nix (#5 hitter with 3 career bunt attempts) to bunt (and bunting with the middle of the order multiple other times). Pinch hitting Jim Thome for JMJ in the 8th inning, which also weakens the defense at 2 positions. Letting Kyle Kendrick and Joe Blanton pitch late innings in a tie game while Jonathan Papelbon sits idly because there is no "save situation".

 

Not Charlie's finest evening.

[Phightins]

This whole "Papelbon does not get used unless it is a save situation" shit really needs to end. David Herndon and Kyle Kendrick should be nowhere near a tie or 1-run game in the 8th/9th innings.

[Phightins]

When the lineup sucks this bad, can't have the manager giving away wins. He has now done it twice in the first weekend of the season.

[Phightins]

4 games into the season is nowhere near panic time. However, the lineup is dreadful and the manager appears to be brain dead. Things need to change.

[Phightins]

Well at least we have a $50 million closer!

[Phightins]

So how many extra inning road games will we lose with a MR on the mound while Papelbon sits in the bullpen twiddling his thumbs?

 

For the record...not blaming Bastardo for yesterday's loss, it was all Wigginton's fault (or Charlie's fault for not putting Orr or Polanco in for defense). But my point stands. Needless to say, Charlie Manuel is having a dreadful season.

[Phightins]

Reminds me of the '06 Red Sox. I hope that's all it is, and not a multi year thing. But it doesn't look good...

[Phightins]

Kyle Kendrick is pitching and Ty Wigginton is batting cleanup.

 

The 2012 Phillies.

[fish7718]

Kyle Kendrick is pitching and Ty Wigginton is batting cleanup.

 

The 2012 Phillies.

Sounds like the 2011 Mets especially the part where all your best players get injured.

[Phightins]

All things considered, I am happy with a 5-5 road trip.

[Phightins]

This trade deadline is going to say a lot about Ruben Amaro. This frightens me.